The Octagon's New Cornerman: AI-Powered Fight Analysis for Sports Betting

1
### User Prompt
2

3
> Who is likely to win in the upcoming fight between Leon Edwards and Belal Muhammad?
4

5
### Response
6

7
Predicting the outcome of a fight between Leon Edwards and Belal Muhammad is challenging as both are highly skilled fighters with impressive records. Here are some key points to consider for each fighter:
8

9
#### Leon Edwards
10
- **Record:** Edwards boasts a strong record, often demonstrating his versatile striking and solid grappling skills.
11
- **Recent Performance:** Edwards has shown resilience and adaptability in his recent fights, making him a formidable opponent.
12
- **Strengths:** Known for his technical striking, strong clinch game, and improved ground skills. He is also well-conditioned and has fought high-level competition.
13

14
#### Belal Muhammad
15
- **Record:** Muhammad also has an impressive record, known for his durability and well-rounded skill set.
16
- **Recent Performance:** Muhammad has been on a notable winning streak, showcasing his ability to adapt and implement effective game plans.
17
- **Strengths:** Excellent cardio, solid wrestling, and effective striking. Muhammad is also known for his relentless pressure and ability to mix up his attacks.
18

19
### Analysis
20
- **Striking:** Edwards might have a slight edge in technical striking and precision.
21
- **Grappling:** Both fighters are competent grapplers, but Muhammad's relentless wrestling could be a key factor.
22
- **Cardio and Endurance:** Both have shown great cardio, but Muhammad's relentless pace might push the limits.
23

24
### Conclusion
25
While both fighters have the skills to win, Leon Edwards might have a slight advantage due to his technical striking and versatility. However, Belal Muhammad's relentless pressure and wrestling could neutralize Edwards' strengths. The fight is likely to be competitive and could go either way depending on who can impose their game plan more effectively.
26

27
As always in MMA, unexpected factors can influence the outcome, making it an exciting and unpredictable event.

1
### User's Question
2
> Who is likely to win in the upcoming fight between Leon Edwards (odds -265) and Belal Muhammad (odds +210)?
3

4
### Response
5
In analyzing the upcoming fight between Leon Edwards and Belal Muhammad based on their betting odds, Leon Edwards is considered the favorite. Betting odds of -265 for Edwards indicate that he is more likely to win, as bettors would need to wager $265 to win $100. On the other hand, Belal Muhammad's odds of +210 suggest that he is the underdog, meaning a $100 bet would yield $210 if he wins.
6

7
While betting odds are not definitive predictors, they reflect the consensus among bettors and bookmakers based on factors like past performance, skill level, and recent form. Leon Edwards' favorite status implies that he is expected to have a higher chance of winning the fight. However, upsets are always possible in sports, and Belal Muhammad could certainly win despite the odds.

1
### User's Question
2

3
That explained how the odds work, but not anything insightful about each fighter's techniques, tactics, or prior performances. Carefully review each of these items for each fighter, and your knowledge of MMA and the UFC to produce a concise insight on the likely winner of this fight.
4

5
### Response
6
#### Leon Edwards
7
**Record:** 21-3 (1 NC)
8

9
**Strengths:**
10
- **Striking:** Edwards is known for his crisp, technical striking. He utilizes a diverse range of strikes, including kicks and elbows, which makes him a well-rounded stand-up fighter.
11
- **Defensive Skills:** His ability to avoid significant damage through excellent head movement and distance control.
12
- **Grappling:** While primarily a striker, Edwards has solid grappling and can defend takedowns effectively.
13

14
**Notable Wins:**
15
- Defeated Kamaru Usman to capture the UFC Welterweight Championship, showcasing his ability to perform under pressure.
16
- Wins over top contenders like Rafael dos Anjos and Vicente Luque.
17

18
#### Belal Muhammad
19
**Record:** 22-3 (1 NC)
20

21
**Strengths:**
22
- **Cardio:** Muhammad is known for his exceptional conditioning, which allows him to maintain a high pace throughout the fight.
23
- **Wrestling:** Strong wrestling background, which he uses to control opponents and dictate the pace of the fight.
24
- **Striking Volume:** While not the most powerful striker, Muhammad throws a high volume of strikes, overwhelming opponents over time.
25

26
**Notable Wins:**
27
- Victories over top fighters like Stephen Thompson and Demian Maia, showcasing his ability to handle different styles.
28

29
#### Tactical Matchup
30
- **Striking:** Edwards has the edge in technical striking and knockout power. His ability to land precise strikes could be a deciding factor.
31
- **Wrestling:** Muhammad has superior wrestling, which he will likely use to try and control Edwards on the ground. However, Edwards has shown good takedown defense.
32
- **Cardio:** Both fighters have excellent conditioning, but Muhammad's relentless pace could challenge Edwards, especially in the later rounds.
33

34
#### Prior Performances
35
- **Leon Edwards:** His performance against Kamaru Usman, where he captured the title, demonstrated his ability to compete at the highest level. His recent fights have shown improvement in his overall game, making him a dangerous opponent for anyone in the division.
36
- **Belal Muhammad:** His recent wins highlight his versatility and ability to adapt to different opponents. His fight IQ and game planning are significant strengths.
37

38
### Likely Winner
39
While both fighters have distinct strengths, Leon Edwards' superior striking, combined with his ability to defend takedowns, gives him a slight edge. Muhammad's relentless pace and wrestling could pose problems, but Edwards' technical proficiency and experience against top competition make him the likely winner.
40

41
### Conclusion
42
Given their respective skills and recent performances, Leon Edwards is favored to win, aligning with the betting odds. However, Belal Muhammad's resilience and wrestling prowess make it a potentially close and competitive fight.

1
<system_prompt>
2
You are an autoregressive language model that has been fine-tuned with instruction-tuning and RLHF. You carefully provide accurate, factual, thoughtful, nuanced answers, and are brilliant at reasoning. If you think there might not be a correct answer, you say so.
3
Since you are autoregressive, each token you produce is another opportunity to use computation, therefore you always spend a few sentences explaining background context, assumptions, and step-by-step thinking BEFORE you try to answer a question.
4
Your users are experts at MMA, UFC, AI, ethics, and sports betting, so they already know you're a language model and your capabilities and limitations, so don't remind them of that. The are familiar with ethical issues in general so you don't need to remind them about those either. Don't be verbose in your answers, but do provide details and examples where it might help the explanation.
5
You are going to be presented a document in plaintext containing a summary about an upcoming fight in the UFC between two fighters.
6
</system_prompt>

1
<heuristics>
2
1. If a fighter has lost a fight by knock out, KO, TKO, or T/KO recently, warn the user about this
3
2. If a fighter has lost more than 50% of their most recent 5 fights, assume their career is on a downward trend and call this out.
4
</heuristics>

1
<leon edwards>
2
  <history>
3
    On 2021-06-12 Leon Edwards fought Nate Diaz at Welterweight and won by Decision - Unanimous.
4
    On 2021-03-13 Leon Edwards fought Belal Muhammad at Welterweight and the result was Could Not Continue.
5
    On 2019-07-20 Leon Edwards fought Rafael Dos Anjos at Welterweight and won by Decision - Unanimous.
6
    On 2019-03-16 Leon Edwards fought Gunnar Nelson at Welterweight and won by Decision - Split.
7
    On 2018-06-23 Leon Edwards fought Donald Cerrone at Welterweight and won by Decision - Unanimous.
8
    On 2018-03-17 Leon Edwards fought Peter Sobotta at Welterweight and won by KO/TKO.
9
    On 2017-09-02 Leon Edwards fought Bryan Barberena at Welterweight and won by Decision - Unanimous.
10
    On 2017-03-18 Leon Edwards fought Vicente Luque at Welterweight and won by Decision - Unanimous.
11
    On 2016-10-08 Leon Edwards fought Albert Tumenov at Welterweight and won by Submission.
12
    On 2016-05-08 Leon Edwards fought Dominic Waters at Welterweight and won by Decision - Unanimous.
13
    On 2015-12-19 Leon Edwards fought Kamaru Usman at Welterweight and lost by Decision - Unanimous.
14
    On 2015-07-18 Leon Edwards fought Pawel Pawlak at Welterweight and won by Decision - Unanimous.
15
  </history>
16
</leon edwards>

1
<template>
2
## Analysis: {Fighter 1} vs {Fighter 2}
3

4
### WolfTicketsAI Predicts {predicted fighter} to Win
5

6
Score: {prediction score}
7
Odds:
8
{Fighter 1}: {Fighter 1 Odds}
9
{Fighter 2}: {Fighter 2 Odds}
10

11
### {Fighter 1}'s Breakdown
12

13
{Analysis for fighter 1 here, include interesting anecdotes about their techniques in past fights}
14

15
### {Fighter 2}'s Breakdown
16

17
{Analysis for fighter 2 here, include interesting anecdotes about their techniques in past fights}
18

19
IF THEY FOUGHT BEFORE:
20
### Previous Fight Breakdown
21
{ Previous fight breakdown here }
22
ENDIF
23

24
### Analysis and Key Points
25

26
{Analysis overall here, make this a bulleted list with bold on important components.}
27

28
### Understanding the Prediction
29

30
{Use the data from SHAP_DATA and the fighter's statistical values here to connect stats to the prediction and how the fighters have performed in the past, remember to present a bulleted list and bold the feature name}
31
For each value in the SHAP_DATA section, iterate over it using the following guide:
32
If the values for the statistic are the same, do not include it in your response.
33
Do this for each value that had an impact of moving the model's prediction up or down in the SHAP_DATA section.
34

35
### Past Model Performance
36

37
{Iterate over past predictions for each fighter and analyze how the model has done and how that impacts the confidence for this current prediction}
38

39
### Conclusion
40

41
{Conclusion here}
42
</template>

1
## Analysis: Leon Edwards vs Belal Muhammad
2

3
### WolfTicketsAI Predicts Leon Edwards to Win
4

5
Score: 11
6
Odds:
7
Leon Edwards: -235
8
Belal Muhammad: 180
9

10
### Leon Edwards's Breakdown
11

12
Leon "Rocky" Edwards enters this title defense on a remarkable 12-fight unbeaten streak. His technical striking, particularly his diverse kicking arsenal and sharp elbows from the clinch, has become a hallmark of his fighting style. Edwards's southpaw stance and ability to switch to orthodox, as seen in his bout against Covington, add layers of complexity to his offense.
13

14
Edwards's improved takedown defense and wrist control have significantly enhanced his ability to keep fights standing. His composure under pressure and tactical adaptability mid-fight, demonstrated in his victories over Usman and Covington, showcase a champion who's constantly evolving.
15

16
### Belal Muhammad's Breakdown
17

18
Belal "Remember the Name" Muhammad comes into this title shot riding a 9-fight unbeaten streak. Known for his relentless pressure and high-volume striking, Muhammad has steadily climbed the ranks by outlasting and outworking his opponents. His cardio and ability to maintain a high pace throughout five rounds are among his greatest assets.
19

20
Muhammad's recent victories, particularly over Gilbert Burns, have demonstrated his improved wrestling and ability to execute strategic game plans against elite competition. His consistent pressure and volume striking, combined with timely takedowns, have become his signature approach.
21

22
### Previous Fight Breakdown
23

24
Their March 2021 encounter ended in a No Contest due to an accidental eye poke by Edwards in the second round. This inconclusive ending sets the stage for an intriguing rematch with championship stakes.
25

26
### Analysis and Key Points
27

28
- **Striking Dynamics:** Edwards holds a significant edge in striking technique and power, particularly with his diverse kicking game. Muhammad's high-volume approach could test Edwards's defense but leaves openings for counters.
29
- **Wrestling and Grappling:** While Muhammad's wrestling has improved, Edwards's takedown defense has also shown marked enhancement. The clinch battle will be crucial, with Edwards's elbows and knees potentially making the difference.
30
- **Cardio and Pace:** Both fighters have excellent cardio, but Muhammad's relentless pressure could push Edwards into uncomfortable situations as the fight progresses.
31
- **Championship Experience:** Edwards's experience in five-round title fights gives him an edge in managing the pace and energy expenditure over a potential 25-minute battle.
32

33
### Understanding the Prediction
34

35
- **Odds:** The significant difference in betting odds heavily influenced the model's prediction in favor of Edwards.
36
- **Recent Performance:** Edwards's recent win percentage and success in title fights have boosted his score.
37
- **Striking Metrics:** Edwards's **significant striking impact differential** of 6.9412 compared to Muhammad's 13.1111 suggests Edwards lands the more impactful strikes, despite Muhammad's higher volume.
38
- **Defensive Skills:** Edwards's **striking defense percentage** of 54.77% slightly edges out Muhammad's 57.89%, indicating a tighter defense.
39
- **Reach Advantage:** Edwards's 2-inch reach advantage (74" vs 72") could be crucial in maintaining distance and landing strikes from range.
40

41
### Past Model Performance
42

43
- The model correctly predicted Edwards's victory over Covington but missed on two of his previous fights against Usman.
44
- For Muhammad, the model has been less accurate, incorrectly predicting his losses in two recent fights he won.
45
- This inconsistency in predictions adds a layer of uncertainty but doesn't negate the current prediction favoring Edwards.
46

47
### Conclusion
48

49
WolfTicketsAI's prediction favoring Leon Edwards appears well-founded. Edwards's technical striking superiority, championship experience, and recent performances against elite competition give him a significant edge. While Muhammad's pressure and improved wrestling pose threats, Edwards's ability to control distance, land impactful strikes, and defend takedowns make him the likely victor.
50

51
Edwards's adaptability and composure in championship rounds could be the deciding factor. His knack for making crucial adjustments mid-fight, as seen against Usman and Covington, may prove too much for Muhammad's relentless but sometimes predictable approach. Fans should expect a tactical masterclass from Edwards, potentially leading to a decisive victory for the defending champion.