UFC 312 - WolfTickets.AI Bets Explained
This Week’s Bets
| Fighter | Method | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Dricus | Inside Distance | +175 |
| Zhang Weili | Moneyline | -104 |
| Park Fight | Does Not Go Distance | -200 |
How We Got Here
Last week was the first attempt at more targeted bets based on the models and the writeups rather than just going with the direct predictions or a cohort of parlays.
| Prediction | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney by KO in Rounds 1 or 2 | +230 | ✅ |
| Fares Ziam to win | +114 | ✅ |
| Israel Adesanya to win | -165 | ❌ |
That paid out pretty well, and we now know that Izzy is definitely on a decline and can factor that into followup predictions and bets later.
This Week’s Bets Explained
To kick things off, let’s start with this week’s most confident predictions:
- Wang Cong - 26
- Jake Matthews -18
- HyunSung Park - 12
- Dricus Du Plessis - 11
Past experiences have taught me to not trust women’s fights on the undercard, they seem to need their own specific model.
To start working from the undercard though, HyunSung Park.
HyunSung Park
The confidence scores are 12, 16, and 23 respectively. Looking into his fight history, we are limited with just 2 fights for Park in the UFC and 1 for his opponent.
Tumendemberel comes in at 8-1-0. His lone loss was his debut in the UFC, he’s fought in a few Road to UFC fights and more regional promotions where he has only gone to a decision once.
Park touts a perfect 9-0 record, also with a lone decision to his record.
With Tumendemberel looking to make sure that he doesn’t face a back to back loss, I’d expect to see him hungrier and more focused on getting the finish. Worth noting that Park’s first win in the UFC proper was a RNC in R3 of the fight, so he’s going for it at all times. The smart play here feels like betting the fight simply doesn’t go the distance, which is currently -200 at the time of writing.
Jake Matthews
All 3 models favoring him with 18-19-22 respectively, with a lot more mileage on him than his opponent(20-3) in the UFC.
- Jake Matthews (20-7-0)
- Francisco Prado (12-20)
Prado has 2 losses since joining the UFC so his station in the organization is far from certain, especially at lightweight. Both losses came by decision with his one win in 2023 being a KO from ground and pound.
Matthews on the other hand is a vet who has been fighting in the octagon proper since June of 2014… That’s nearly a decade right now. He did start the decline of Andre Fialho by KO in 2022. He lost most recently to Michael Morales who has been on a tear in the division(Welterweight).
Prado is going up in weight for the first time(Lightweight to Welterweight).
Checking the weighted scorer, it is really favoring Matthews here with a bonus for the original base confidence and a bonus for Prado’s jump in weight.
What’s concerning about this is all of Matthews opponents. If he beat them, they are washed, in their last 5:
- June 2024 Phil Rowe(Matthews won) Phil got a win at the end of June but is 1-4 in his last ufc outings.
- Nov 2023 Michael Morales (Morales won) He’s currently undefeated.
- Jul 2023 Darrius Flowers (Matthews Won) He’s 3-2 in his last 5 with 3 back to back losses starting with Matthews.
- Dec 2022 Matthew Semelsberger (Semelsberger won) 1-4 in his last 5
Even when he’s winning he is not beating the best here, I think the stats are far too confident.
We should back out of this one entirely.
Dricus Du Plessis
They had a previous outing before that cost Strickland his belt but ended in a split decision. There’s been a flurry of media attention around this fight, with Strickland looking to create a Gentlemen’s agreement to keep the fight standing. Dricus has refused to agree. Not to mention lots of personal attacks.
If history teaches us nothing, it teaches us that Strickland loves to talk a big game of violence and then become a 5 round jab merchant. Dricus on the other hand only has a single decision win to his name, and that was against Strickland. He’s a big dude who can use some interesting techniques to apply a lot of pressure and force grappling exchanges. However, he does tend to lead in very over committed and can eat jabs when this happens.
I don’t see Strickland bringing anything new to the table and the game planning from Dricus’ camp has been on point to date. For that reason I’m favoring he gets it done inside the distance this time. Currently +128 that the fight doesn’t go to a decision, and +175 that Dricus wins within the distance.
To dig into a few more fights:
Wang Cong
Reviewing this fight closer, the -480 is a huge favorite. I can see why with a KO win for Cong, a KO loss for Brasil, and with Brasil coming up in weight. I still don’t like this fight and will pass.
Zhang Weili
This feels like critical miss here. She’s nearly an underdog at -104 and has been dominant since regaining her title. She’s had 7 Strawweight title fights, lost the belt once and regained it though she has not claimed back her losses against Rose in 2021. Zhang’s continued work with Henry Cejudo seems to pay dividends as her grappling and game plan continues to improve.
A ML bet here for the -104 looks like a great option to add.
Tom Nolan
Another underdog call at +118 but VERY little confidence in the models and a limited history all the way around. If you’re in need of another bet, not a bad one to take but not in my list for the week.
Recapping the Bets:
| Fighter | Method | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Dricus | Inside the Distance | +175 |
| Zhang Weili | Moneyline | -104 |
| Park Fight | Does Not Go Distance | -200 |
Check out the full details of UFC 312 on WolfTickets.AI
Good Luck, — Chris@WolfTickets.AI