Radar Charts - Clarifying EV and Predictions Before Betting.

The past few weeks have been rough, the weeks before were great and I’ve been racking my brain for a systemic way to better identify risks when presented with the predictions and the EV values.

When analyzing the fights, we’ve had stats, the specific predictions, odds data, the EV data, and a long writeup that explores their tendencies. All great information, but hard to contextualize to understand when the model might be missing something.

To solve this I’ve released Radar Charts to WolfTickets.AI predictions.

Insight at a glance with Radar Charts

This chart plots the upcoming trilogy of Max and Dustin where Dustin has had his hand raised after both of their last 2 fights. These fights have been close, especially the last Holloway fight and the odds, our other predictions, and the EV values all favor Holloway, but why?

Now we can see how Max is stacking up against Dustin and the overall performance the lightweight division against these greats.

We have a low confidence prediction and tight odds, and can quickly see the match between Holloway’s volume and conditioning against Dustin’s power and finishing ability. Given how close this is, I’d stay away from it as a bet, but it should be an outstanding fight.

How it works

The star chart visualization I’ve developed transforms how I understand fighter matchups. Instead of scanning through comparison tables, you can now see each fighter’s complete skill profile in a single, intuitive radar chart with eight key dimensions:

1. Physical Attributes - Height, reach, and age advantages
2. Experience & Success - Win percentage and career trajectory(momentum)
3. Striking Offense - Output, accuracy, and finishing power
4. Striking Defense - Damage prevention and defensive skills
5. Grappling Offense - Takedowns, submissions, and ground control
6. Grappling Defense - Takedown defense and submission prevention
7. Finishing Ability - Knockdowns, submissions, and early finishes
8. Adaptability - Performance trends and peak ratios

Each dimension is scored on a 0-100 percentile scale relative to the fighter’s weight class, creating an immediately readable “fingerprint” of their capabilities. The scales are normalized by weight class, so seeing 2 charts side by side does not mean that one fighter is significantly better in any dimension if they are higher and they are compared against another fighter from a different weight class.

Revisiting the past

Hindsight is always 20/20, especially true when we aim this tool at a few recent matchups.

Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Valter Walker

This prediction was HEAVILY for Kennedy with all models picking him, a positive EV score, and solid favorite odds at -245. Admittedly I was even more biased upon learning Walker’s brother is indeed the meme fighter Johnny Walker.

We missed it though, a fighter with much stronger grappling, close on finishing ability, and a much stonger tailwind behind him pushing him forward. For missing this, we lost a bet and got to see a fantastic heel-hook finish.

Calvin Kattar vs. Steve Garcia

The other side of our bet was excellent. Favoring Garcia with 2 models and a solid EV value and decent odds at -150 we picked a winner here.

The chart clearly calls out a much higher finishing ability, adaptability, physical attributes, and succesful trends. Nearly besting Kattar in ALL categories. This is EXACTLY what we want to see going forward.

The last 10 events have had these charts computed for them and can be seen on any predictions detail page like: https://wolftickets.ai/events/ufc-on-espn-lewis-vs-teixeira/5058191919878739348/calvin-kattar-vs-steve-garcia/837/ .

Radar driven betting

Starting off with the EV list, the positive EV fights are:

Fighter	W	O	P	EV	Odds
Francisco Prado	13	14	21	13.2	-156
Dan Ige	16	16	21	7.9	-215
Max Holloway	6	11	9	5.3	-132
Roman Kopylov	17		9	4.6	-265
Carli Judice	26	18	24	4.5	-295
Ryan Spann	14	14	7	4.2	-245

Prado

I was prepared to throw this prediction in the trash, despite the positive EV and odds of -150 both fighters are on a TERRIBLE run with back to back losses for Veretennikov and Prado beign 1-4 in his UFC run to date with back to back decision losses. There’s also a lot of moving around for weight classes

What we see though is a significantly out performing Prado except for physical attributes where he’s a lightweight historically vs a fully normal Welterweight. This now looks like a promising bet.

Ige

Another fight that would have been difficult to size up but with more favorable odds on Ige at -215. Clear as day though we see Ige is not leading the division in any categories and Pitbull showing a longer historical success(from Bellator experience) and grappling defense. Honestly not a bad call at all, given how weak Pitbull shows up even after fighting older fighters.

Holloway

We already explored this match earlier, this one is very close to call, skipping it.

Kopylov

The meatiest twitter boy in the UFC is facing Kopylov who’s a solid favorite at -265 and an EV of 4.6.

The only real threat we see here is the improvement in striking offense but with Costa trailing behind the division in most stats. Feeling better about this one.

Judice

NOW we’re spotting risk! 4.5 EV, heavy favorite at -295 and a women’s fight on the undercard. A pretty wide spread on all of the stats with neither fighter having a huge lead in the success category. Judice did KO her last opponent but both fighters together have only 3 bouts in the UFC, time to walk away from this one.

Span

To switch it up, as I write this I have not looked at this yet in chart form. We have a heavyweight fight, an EV of 4.2 and odds of -245. Run away, heavyweight fights are a coin toss of who can bonk who first.

Not as terrible as expected but both fighters are scoped at the lower end of their division in success and striking ( the big swinging factor for a HW matchup ). Let’s just leave this alone.

The Bet

A parlay of Prado and Ige, though Kopylov looks promising as well.

Good Luck

-Chris@WolfTickets.AI