UFC Paris: WTAI6 Predictions and Fighter Analysis

The UFC is back in Paris with a solid card on September 6th, 2025. Coincidentally I just got back from a vacation in France but just missed the event by a few days. For the last event I forgot to post all the predictions so here they are all provided, along with a first pass at star charts again.

The new model uses totally different stats from the previous generations so expect some differences, but our predictions for the bets were predicted by the old WTAI model and v6.

The parlay from this week was built by the v6 model.

TL;DR

WTAI6 identified 5 positive expected value opportunities out of 9 fights (55.6% hit rate).

This week’s full prediction list and breakdowns for all of the older models is available: WolfTickets.AI - UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho

Recommended Parlay:

Prediction Break Downs

Let’s examine all 9 fights using our comprehensive fighter analysis system, blending technical breakdowns with WTAI6 insights. Each radar chart shows normalized scores (0-100) across six key performance categories.

Nassourdine Imavov vs Caio Borralho - Middleweight Co-Main

This middleweight co-main event pits two technical strikers with different approaches. Imavov comes in riding massive momentum after his stunning knockout of Israel Adesanya in February, while Borralho brings sophisticated Machida-inspired defensive striking.

Imavov’s Evolution and Path to Victory

Imavov has developed into a more complete finisher since the Adesanya victory. His intercepting front kicks disrupt rhythm and create openings for combinations. Against Brendan Allen, his clinch knees and elbows off the breaks consistently found their mark, showing his evolved finishing power.

His signature techniques include the front kick to the body for distance disruption and one-two combinations followed by defensive head weaves. The controlled striking and cage management against Roman Dolidze demonstrated his tactical maturity.

However, Imavov still backs straight up under pressure—a flaw Sean Strickland exploited ruthlessly in 2023. His takedown defense showed significant gaps against Adesanya, diving at legs without proper setup. Against a grappler like Borralho, these technical deficiencies could prove costly.

Borralho’s Machida-Inspired Mastery

Borralho brings sophisticated defensive striking built around manipulation and precise counters. His lead hand work is masterful—using open palm frames on opponents’ shoulders and extended long guards to control distance. Against Jared Cannonier, these techniques created physical barriers that disrupted offensive flow while setting up his signature left straight counters.

His southpaw counterpunching sequences are devastating. The shoulder roll defense against Cannonier was textbook—tucking his chin behind his lead shoulder while absorbing shots, then pivoting to return fire. This platform created his fifth-round knockdown of Cannonier.

But Borralho has a critical flaw: he elevates his chin and whips his head back when throwing his jab, creating significant openings for counter strikes. His extended lead hand frames have also resulted in multiple eye pokes throughout his UFC career.

The Technical Matchup

This presents fascinating contrasts. Imavov’s front kicks could exploit Borralho’s tendency to advance with extended lead hands. When Borralho frames, Imavov’s body kicks—which were so effective against Allen—could find their mark consistently.

However, Borralho’s southpaw stance creates problems for Imavov’s preferred straight-line attacks. The open stance matchup favors Borralho’s counter left hand, especially if he can force Imavov to retreat as Strickland did.

The grappling exchanges heavily favor Borralho. His technical takedown execution and superior ground control present serious problems for Imavov’s flawed takedown defense.

WTAI6 Analysis: Slight Imavov edge (46.7% calibrated probability) but negative EV (-3.3%)

The model sees this as essentially a coin flip with both fighters having clear paths to victory. The betting market has priced this correctly despite Imavov’s recent momentum.

Mauricio Ruffy vs Benoit Saint Denis - Lightweight Co-Main

This matchup features contrasting trajectories—Ruffy enters with spectacular finishing power and momentum, while Saint Denis comes off two brutal losses that exposed critical defensive flaws.

Ruffy’s Explosive Arsenal

Ruffy brings exceptional finishing ability built around his wheel kick setups. Against King Green, he perfectly executed his signature sequence—a long, slapping left hook that baited Green into leaning back, followed immediately by a devastating wheel kick that connected heel-to-head for an instant knockout.

His orthodox stance creates favorable matchups against southpaws like Saint Denis. Ruffy’s hand fighting resembles Vladimir Klitschko’s approach—backhanding the opponent’s lead hand to disrupt rhythm, then stripping their guard down with whipping motions. This creates openings for his powerful right hand.

His distance management is exceptional, manipulating range to bait specific defensive reactions before capitalizing with explosive techniques. Recent stats show improved striking accuracy (67% vs 59% career) and better defensive metrics.

Saint Denis’s Defensive Regression

Saint Denis has shown troubling defensive problems in recent fights. Against Renato Moicano, his predictable left kick was repeatedly parried and countered into takedowns. His forward pressure leaves him vulnerable to counter right hands—a pattern Dustin Poirier exploited before landing the knockout blow.

He consistently gets caught with counter right hands after throwing his left. This pattern repeated against Poirier until the finish. His speed deficiency becomes pronounced against faster opponents, as Moicano’s superior hand speed allowed him to dominate exchanges and land devastating ground strikes.

When his primary left kick is neutralized, Saint Denis struggles to adapt, often abandoning his best weapon entirely as happened against Moicano.

The Speed and Style Mismatch

The orthodox vs southpaw dynamic favors Ruffy, who has shown expertise in neutralizing southpaw advantages through his hand fighting. Saint Denis’s predictable left kick entries could be exploited by Ruffy’s superior speed and counter-striking ability.

Ruffy’s superior hand speed should allow him to time Saint Denis’s entries and counter with power shots, similar to how Moicano dominated their exchanges.

WTAI6 Analysis: Ruffy (64.6% probability) but negative EV (-1.6%)

Ruffy’s superior speed and defensive improvements mirror the advantages Moicano used to dominate Saint Denis. The Brazilian’s explosive finishing ability makes him the rightful favorite, but the market has this priced correctly.

Shauna Bannon vs Sam Hughes - Women’s Strawweight

This women’s strawweight bout features contrasting styles—Bannon’s unique Taekwondo-based striking against Hughes’s methodical pressure fighting.

Bannon’s Taekwondo Arsenal and Vulnerabilities

Bannon’s signature high lead leg chamber position creates multiple threats—sidekicks, axe kicks, and high round kicks from the same setup. Against Puja Tomar, this approach completely disrupted timing before Bannon landed the fight-ending head kick and transitioned to armbar.

However, recent performances reveal concerning patterns. Against Alice Ardelean, she grabbed the fence five times, suggesting defensive struggles under pressure. The Bruna Brasil fight exposed her tendency to overcommit to power shots when countering, leaving her vulnerable to level changes.

Her over-reliance on single-leg striking postures makes her susceptible to low kick counters and timed takedowns. When balanced on her chambered lead leg, opponents can disrupt her balance and create takedown opportunities.

Hughes’s Pressure Evolution

Hughes has evolved into a methodical pressure fighter with reliable finishing ability. Her lead hook to body-head combinations create effective level changes that open defensive gaps. Against Stephanie Luciano, she repeatedly landed this sequence before securing the fight-ending arm-triangle.

Her reactive clinch entries have become weapons—when opponents throw wide strikes, Hughes slips inside for collar ties and short elbows. Her double-leg setups off strikes use the right hand to draw guards up before changing levels.

The Style Mismatch

Hughes’s pressure-heavy approach directly counters Bannon’s distance-dependent kicking style. The takedown threat should disrupt Bannon’s rhythm, while Hughes’s improved clinch work neutralizes the kicking range where Bannon finds success.

WTAI6 Analysis: Hughes favored but negative EV (-12.9%)

This represents our worst Expected Value on the card, as Hughes’s systematic approach should overwhelm Bannon’s single-dimensional kicking game.

Modestas Bukauskas vs Paul Craig - Light Heavyweight

A classic striker versus grappler matchup with contrasting momentum—Bukauskas’s technical evolution against Craig’s four-fight losing streak.

Bukauskas’s Technical Evolution

Bukauskas brings a refined striking approach built around his 6’3” frame and 78-inch reach advantage. His signature weapons include front kicks for distance management and devastating counter right hands over the top. Against Ion Cutelaba, he showed excellent composure under pressure, using lateral movement and front kicks to disrupt forward momentum.

His clinch work has evolved significantly—against Zac Pauga, he executed a perfectly timed trip takedown from the fence before unleashing elbows for the TKO finish. His shifting right hook against Tyson Pedro became a signature technique, allowing him to close distance while slipping outside his opponent’s lead shoulder.

Most importantly, Bukauskas has shown marked improvement in defensive awareness since earlier setbacks, developing better head movement and more disciplined stance work.

Craig’s Submission Threat and Critical Limitations

Craig operates as a submission specialist whose game revolves around guard work and triangle setups. His most effective weapon remains his ability to catch kicks and transition to the ground, as demonstrated against Johnny Walker.

Against Nikita Krylov, he showed exceptional patience while absorbing damage, waiting for Krylov to attempt a flashy backfist before catching the punch mid-air and transitioning to a fight-ending triangle.

However, Craig’s striking defense remains fundamentally flawed. He consistently leaves his head exposed when throwing kicks, getting caught on one leg as opponents step up the middle with counters. His takedown game is nearly nonexistent (19% UFC success rate), forcing him to rely on guard-pulling or accepting bottom position.

The Technical Advantage

This presents classic striker versus grappler dynamics with technical advantages favoring Bukauskas. Craig’s kick-catching strategy, while dangerous, plays into Bukauskas’s counter-striking wheelhouse. Bukauskas has shown excellent timing against opponents who throw single techniques.

Craig’s best path involves catching one of Bukauskas’s kicks early, but Bukauskas’s recent evolution suggests he’ll be more selective with his kicking game and better prepared for Craig’s signature entries.

WTAI6 Analysis: Bukauskas (77.9% calibrated probability) - Positive EV (+1.2%)

Bukauskas’s technical striking evolution, combined with Craig’s predictable approach and losing streak, creates clear advantages. His improved defensive awareness should neutralize Craig’s submission threats.

Oumar Sy vs Brendson Ribeiro - Light Heavyweight

This bout showcases Sy’s unorthodox southpaw arsenal against Ribeiro’s predictable defensive patterns.

Sy’s Southpaw Dominance

Sy brings an unorthodox southpaw arsenal built around his devastating left leg kick, which serves as both setup and finish. Against Da Woon Jung, this kick was so effective Jung had to specifically gameplan around it. When it lands clean, Sy chains it into left straights and wide left hooks to create southpaw left-side dominance.

His grappling is where he truly shines. Against Tuco Tokkos, he demonstrated seamless transitions from takedowns to back control, finishing with a rear-naked choke. Sy averages 2.22 takedowns per fight with perfect takedown defense—he’s never been taken down in the UFC.

Ribeiro’s Predictable Vulnerabilities

Ribeiro’s predictable defensive teep kick has become a glaring weakness. Against Magomed Gadzhiyasulov, this telegraphed reaction appeared almost as a flinch response. Every time Gadzhiyasulov initiated pressure, Ribeiro would pull his knee up defensively, allowing Gadzhiyasulov to time a perfect right hand counter.

His tendency to retreat in straight lines creates predictable patterns. Against Zhang Mingyang, despite landing clean shots, Ribeiro failed to pivot off centerline and was systematically backed to the fence for the finish.

The Perfect Technical Mismatch

Sy’s left leg kick perfectly exploits Ribeiro’s defensive teep reaction. While Ribeiro instinctively pulls his knee up when pressured, Sy’s powerful kick targets exactly where Ribeiro’s leg would be during this defensive motion—a technical nightmare for Ribeiro.

WTAI6 Analysis: Sy (80.1% probability) - Minimal EV (+0.5%)

Our highest confidence prediction reflects Sy’s technical advantages and perfect stylistic matchup. His left kick exploits Ribeiro’s defensive patterns while superior grappling credentials neutralize Ribeiro’s ground game.

Sam Patterson vs Trey Waters - Welterweight

This welterweight clash features a dangerous finisher against a defensively flawed opponent—Patterson’s evolved skill set versus Waters’s exploitable defensive habits.

Patterson’s Counter-Striking and Submission Evolution

Patterson brings a dangerous combination of counter-striking and submission skills. His signature short counter right hand was perfectly displayed against Danny Barlow—remaining composed against the fence and delivering a flush knockout counter as Barlow overcommitted.

His ground game has evolved significantly through submission wins over Kiefer Crosbie and Yohan Lainesse. Against Lainesse, he secured back control through a hip clamp position before finishing with a rear-naked choke. His 100% takedown accuracy and 4.6 recent takedowns per fight show comfortable striking-grappling integration.

Waters’s Defensive Liabilities

Waters has dangerous habits that create finishing opportunities. He turns his head away from incoming strikes during exchanges rather than maintaining visual contact—a tendency Billy Ray Goff exploited repeatedly.

His defensive reactions to leg attacks are predictable—lifting his leg to check without upper body adjustment, leaving his head exposed. Waters relies on single-layer defense, backing straight up without head movement or lateral movement. His recent striking defense dropped to 42%, showing increased vulnerability as competition rises.

His body shot defense is particularly weak, as Goff repeatedly slipped inside his jab to land right straights to the body—a weakness that plays directly into Patterson’s submission game.

The Grappling and Striking Mismatch

Patterson’s perfect 100% takedown accuracy against Waters’s 46% recent takedown defense creates obvious advantages. Waters has shown limited grappling experience, while Patterson averages 4.6 takedowns per fight in recent bouts.

Patterson’s willingness to accept pressure positions means he’ll likely find ways to close distance, with Waters’s weak takedown defense opening clear paths to back control and submissions.

WTAI6 Analysis: Patterson (67.2% calibrated probability) - Strong EV (+3.7%)

Patterson’s combination of counter-striking precision and elite submission skills creates multiple paths to victory against Waters’s defensive vulnerabilities.

Brad Tavares vs Robert Bryczek - Middleweight

This matchup presents the card’s highest Expected Value opportunity—a seasoned veteran with 32 UFC fights against a one-dimensional power puncher making his second UFC appearance.

Tavares’s Veteran Mastery

Tavares brings elite defensive wrestling (88% takedown defense historically) and technical striking fundamentals from 32 UFC fights. His signature weapons center around defensive counterpunching and distance management. Against Gerald Meerschaert, he showcased defensive wrestling by establishing wide bases and securing underhooks whenever takedowns were attempted.

His overhand right off the fence remains reliable when backing away from pressure—the same technique that troubled Dricus du Plessis. Tavares excels at methodical pace control through his double jab setup and has evolved his leg kick game significantly, systematically targeting opponents’ lead legs.

However, Tavares has a known vulnerability—he’s susceptible to well-timed counter hooks when extending with his jab. Bruno Silva demonstrated this perfectly, throwing a wide left hook over Tavares’s extended jab for the knockout.

Bryczek’s One-Dimensional Power

Bryczek enters with knockout ability evidenced by his five-fight finishing streak before the UFC. His counterpunching revolves around a sharp left hook that he times well when opponents commit to attacks. His boxing-centric approach emphasizes the 2-1 combination when his jab gets neutralized.

But Bryczek’s limitations are glaring. Against João Potieria’s lead leg teeps, Bryczek had no effective counter, allowing the kicks to repeatedly disrupt his forward pressure. His boxing background leaves him underdeveloped against kicks—a critical weakness.

The Experience Chasm

This matchup heavily favors Tavares’s technical experience over Bryczek’s power punching. The experience gap is staggering: Tavares’s 32 UFC fights versus Bryczek’s single UFC appearance. Tavares has won more UFC decisions than most fighters have total UFC fights.

Tavares’s defensive wrestling advantage is massive—Bryczek showed no takedown attempts against Potieria, suggesting limited grappling integration. The veteran has multiple paths to victory through distance management, defensive wrestling, or methodical decision-winning.

WTAI6 Analysis: Tavares (74.1% calibrated probability) - Highest EV (+3.9%)

Tavares’s technical superiority, defensive wrestling, and vast experience advantage create multiple paths to victory against Bryczek’s one-dimensional approach. The betting line significantly undervalues the veteran’s advantages.

Mason Jones vs Bolaji Oki - Lightweight

This lightweight contest pits Jones’s technical precision against Oki’s explosive but flawed power.

Jones’s Technical Precision

Jones showcases calculated pressure built around his jab-left hook to body combination. Against Jeremy Stephens, his defensive evolution was evident—incorporating head movement after striking and adjusting when caught with counters. His grappling credentials shine through 4.34 recent takedowns per fight with solid accuracy.

Oki’s Explosive But Vulnerable Approach

Oki brings explosive power through his signature cross variations, but his approach backfires against technical opponents. Against Chris Duncan, heavy pressure led him into leg kick counters that forced a desperate takedown attempt. Duncan caught him in a guillotine that put Oki to sleep—clear evidence of chasing knockouts over fighting smart.

His poor takedown defense (18.3%) plays directly into Jones’s strength, while the submission threat looms large given Oki’s recent guillotine loss.

WTAI6 Analysis: Jones favored with minimal positive EV

Jones’s technical precision directly counters Oki’s aggressive tendencies, while his jab-based offense disrupts Oki’s rhythm before explosive attacks can be established.

Andreas Gustafsson vs Rinat Fakhretdinov - Welterweight

This welterweight clash pits relentless pressure against declining effectiveness.

Gustafsson’s Relentless Approach

Gustafsson overwhelmed Khaos Williams through cage-cutting takedown sequences in his debut. His Greco-Roman background shows in upper body control and takedown chains. He landed 8 of 14 takedowns while maintaining over 9 minutes of control time, with his cardio holding up through three hard rounds.

Fakhretdinov’s Concerning Decline

Fakhretdinov operates as a crafty pressure fighter, but recent performances show troubling trends. His cardio deterioration after round one is most exploitable—against Zaleski dos Santos, front kicks visibly damaged him by round three, and technical execution completely broke down.

WTAI6 Analysis: Gustafsson slight favorite in close fight

This matchup favors Gustafsson’s relentless pressure against Fakhretdinov’s declining cardio. Gustafsson’s ability to maintain technical proficiency through three rounds directly exploits Fakhretdinov’s biggest weakness.

Weight Class Performance Insights

• Light Heavyweight: 2 positive EV fights (+0.8% average)
• Middleweight: 1 positive EV fight (+3.9% Tavares)
• Welterweight: 1 positive EV fight (+3.7% Patterson)
• Women’s Strawweight: 0 positive EV (-12.9% worst on card)

Conclusion

UFC Paris offers quality betting opportunities identified through WTAI6’. I really appreciate your patience as I get things ported to the proper WolfTickets site!

As always, bet responsibly and within your means. The model provides probabilistic edges, not guarantees.

Good luck!

-Chris@WolfTickets.AI