UFC Fight Night Ulberg vs Reyes: Predictions and Analysis
This post is a bit light compared to others and just focuses on getting the full predictions and bets out to everyone.
You can view all the writeups and analysis for the fights at WolfTickets.AI - Ulberg vs Reyes.
TL;DR
Recommended Parlay:
Full Predictions
Main Card
| Fighter | WTAI6 | WTAI | Profit | Plain | EV | Dec | Sub | TKO | # of Fights | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Ulberg | 69.1% | 20 | 17 | 2 | 6.6 | 33.33%|3 | 11.11%|1 | 55.56%|5 | 9 | -265 |
| Dominick Reyes | 30.9% | - | - | - | - | 23.08%|3 | 7.69%|1 | 69.23%|9 | 13 | +200 |
| Jack Jenkins | 69.3% | 20 | 16 | 28 | 4.5 | 40.0%|2 | 20.0%|1 | 40.0%|2 | 5 | -295 |
| Ramon Taveras | 30.7% | - | - | - | - | 100.0%|2 | 0.0%|0 | 0.0%|0 | 2 | +220 |
| Jimmy Crute | 66.7% | 5 | 10 | 26 | -6.5 | 18.18%|2 | 45.45%|5 | 36.36%|4 | 11 | -200 |
| Ivan Erslan | 33.3% | - | - | - | - | 100.0%|2 | 0.0%|0 | 0.0%|0 | 2 | +154 |
| Jake Matthews | 71.7% | 27 | 20 | 15 | -4.7 | 45.45%|10 | 40.91%|9 | 13.64%|3 | 22 | -520 |
| Neil Magny | 28.3% | - | - | - | - | 48.57%|17 | 20.0%|7 | 31.43%|11 | 35 | +350 |
| Tom Nolan | 63.4% | 4 | 9 | 8 | -1.7 | 50.0%|2 | 0.0%|0 | 50.0%|2 | 4 | -162 |
| Charlie Campbell | 36.6% | - | - | - | - | 50.0%|1 | 0.0%|0 | 50.0%|1 | 2 | +126 |
Under Card
| Fighter | WTAI6 | WTAI | Profit | Plain | EV | Dec | Sub | TKO | # of Fights | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Navajo Stirling | 68.4% | 25 | 18 | 29 | 8.2 | 100.0%|2 | 0.0%|0 | 0.0%|0 | 2 | -245 |
| Rodolfo Bellato | 31.6% | - | - | - | - | 33.33%|1 | 0.0%|0 | 33.33%|1 | 3 | +186 |
| Loma Lookboonmee | 41.2% | - | 0 | - | - | 88.89%|8 | 11.11%|1 | 0.0%|0 | 9 | +190 |
| Alexia Thainara | 58.8% | 14 | - | 8 | 3.7 | 0.0%|0 | 100.0%|1 | 0.0%|0 | 1 | -250 |
| Jonathan Micallef | 54.3% | 7 | 12 | 12 | 15.6 | 100.0%|1 | 0.0%|0 | 0.0%|0 | 1 | +106 |
| Oban Elliott | 45.7% | - | - | - | - | 75.0%|3 | 0.0%|0 | 25.0%|1 | 4 | -136 |
| Colby Thicknesse | 51.5% | 5 | 10 | 14 | 15.9 | 100.0%|1 | 0.0%|0 | 0.0%|0 | 1 | +126 |
| Josias Musasa | 48.5% | - | - | - | - | 0.0%|0 | 100.0%|1 | 0.0%|0 | 1 | -162 |
| Jamie Mullarkey | 54.4% | 2 | 12 | 11 | 2.6 | 45.45%|5 | 0.0%|0 | 54.55%|6 | 11 | -113 |
| Rolando Bedoya | 45.6% | - | - | - | - | 100.0%|3 | 0.0%|0 | 0.0%|0 | 3 | -113 |
Selecting Fights For Bets
This week we see really high EV values on a few fighters(Micallef, Thicknesse) which should make them the natural choice but they only have one fight each in the UFC which means the data we use for analyizing their performance is likely to be skewed, this is especially true when we consider if the fight ended early.
Dropping the fighters with only 1 fight and then ranking by EV we see:
| Rank | Fighter | EV | WTAI6 Win % | Odds | Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Navajo Stirling | +8.2 | 68.4% | -245 | Undercard |
| 2 | Carlos Ulberg | +6.6 | 69.1% | -265 | Main Card |
| 3 | Jack Jenkins | +4.5 | 69.3% | -295 | Main Card |
| 4 | Jamie Mullarkey | +2.6 | 54.4% | -113 | Undercard |
- Navajo Stirling shows the highest EV (+8.2) with strong WTAI6 confidence (68.4%)
- Carlos Ulberg and Jack Jenkins both show solid EV with very high model confidence (~69%)
- Jamie Mullarkey has lower model confidence but still positive EV in a closer fight
With that, we pick Stirling and Ulberg and let our 2 fight parlay system go!
What’s Next
Since the last update I’ve mapped out a solid way to have multiple models exist on the site and a way to store and reference the stats between the models. Within the next few event the results for all models should be on the site in a unified way.
If you’ve got suggestions for how you’d like these predictions presented or ideas for improvements, I’d love the feedback!
Good luck!
