UFC October 4, 2025: WTAI6 Predictions and Analysis

TL;DR

Recommended Parlay:

This Week’s Card Overview

UFC returns this weekend with an 11-fight card. This week’s parlay selection is based on the highest positive EV opportunities from the WT5 model (after removing fighters with only 1 fight). Both WT6 and WT5 models agree on these predictions, giving us additional confidence in the selections.

Full Predictions

Main Card

Fighter	WT6	WT5	Profit Model	Plain Model	EV	# of Fights	Odds
Magomed Ankalaev	64.6%	16	15	14	6.5	15	-230
Alex Pereira						11	+176
Merab Dvalishvili	72.8%	25	18	18	-0.4	15	-390
Cory Sandhagen						15	+280
Jiri Prochazka	68.1%	8	8	1	4.4	7	-184
Khalil Rountree Jr.						17	+142
Josh Emmett			2			15	+310
Youssef Zalal	70.0%	28		16	-2.3	11	-448
Abus Magomedov			5	9		6	+196
Joe Pyfer	60.6%	12			0.9	6	-260

Undercard

Fighter	WT6	WT5	Profit Model	Plain Model	EV	# of Fights	Odds
Edmen Shahbazyan	64.3%	15	17	7	0.8	13	-290
Andre Muniz						9	+215
Chris Gutierrez						14	+300
Farid Basharat	71.0%	24	1	1	-2.0	4	-430
Daniel Santos		1	7		-3.0	4	-142
JooSang Yoo				5		5	+112
Macy Chiasson	70.1%	13	11	12	7.5	12	-200
Yana Santos						11	+154
Punahele Soriano	65.3%	20	18	19	9.0	9	-235
Nikolay Veretennikov						3	+180
Ramiz Brahimaj						7	+200
Austin Vanderford		21	0	15	6.6		-265
Veronica Hardy	75.0%	31	21	22	-6.9	9	-620
Brogan Walker						2	+400

Note: The WTAI6 model did not generate predictions for Daniel Santos vs JooSang Yoo or Ramiz Brahimaj vs Austin Vanderford due to insufficient historical data for reliable calibration.

Selecting This Week’s Bets

Looking at the WT5 EV column and removing fighters with only 1 UFC fight, the top positive EV opportunities are:

Rank	Fighter	WT5 EV	WT6 Win %	Odds	Card
1	Punahele Soriano	+9.0	65.3%	-235	Undercard
2	Macy Chiasson	+7.5	70.1%	-200	Undercard
3	Magomed Ankalaev	+6.5	64.6%	-230	Main Card
4	Jiri Prochazka	+4.4	68.1%	-184	Main Card

Both Soriano and Chiasson show strong agreement across models (WT5, WT6, Profit, and Plain all favor them), making them the natural selections for this week’s 2-fight parlay strategy.

WTAI6 EV Analysis

The newer WTAI6 model uses empirical calibration for Expected Value calculations. Here’s what it shows for this card:

WTAI6 Positive EV Opportunities

Only two fights show marginal positive expected value with the WTAI6 methodology:

1. Jiri Prochazka vs Khalil Rountree Jr. (+0.033 EV)
2. Macy Chiasson vs Yana Santos (+0.034 EV)

Both are classified as “MARGINAL” with strong robustness in the WTAI6 system. However, the WT5 model’s higher EV scores for Soriano (+9.0) and Chiasson (+7.5), combined with cross-model agreement, make them the stronger play this week.

Deep Dive: The Positive EV Fights

Fight 1: Jiri Prochazka vs Khalil Rountree Jr. (Light Heavyweight)

WTAI6 Prediction: Prochazka wins (68.1% calibrated probability) Market Implied: 64.8% Empirical EV: +0.033 Recommendation: MARGINAL

The Breakdown

Prochazka comes in with a fascinating profile:

• 5W-2L-1D UFC record
• 55.9% striking accuracy with high volume
• 71.4% finish rate
• Strong wrestling at 60.0%

The concerning factor? His defensive striking is just 43.3%, which against a dangerous finisher like Rountree (43.8% finish rate) creates volatility risk.

Rountree’s stats tell the story of a powerful but technically limited striker:

• 42.1% striking accuracy (compared to Prochazka’s 55.9%)
• 0.0% takedown defense on record
• 10W-6L showing he’s beatable by elite competition

The Edge: Prochazka’s well-rounded game, particularly his wrestling advantage, should allow him to control where this fight takes place. At -184, there’s marginal value but the 3.3% edge doesn’t scream “lock of the century.”

Fight 2: Macy Chiasson vs Yana Santos (Women’s Bantamweight)

WTAI6 Prediction: Chiasson wins (70.1% calibrated probability) Market Implied: 66.7% Empirical EV: +0.034 Recommendation: MARGINAL

The Analysis

Chiasson presents as the more complete fighter:

• 8W-4L record with wrestling as her strength
• 35.4% takedown rate
• Fighting in her natural division

Santos counters with superior striking:

• 58.5% striking accuracy with high volume
• 50.0% takedown rate (interesting wrestling threat)
• 0.0% finish rate (every fight goes to decision)

The Edge: Santos’ inability to finish fights works in my favor for a Chiasson decision. The 3.4% EV edge is minimal, but Chiasson’s wrestling-heavy approach against Santos’ decision-prone style suggests a path to victory.

What About the Main Events?

Ankalaev vs Pereira

The model gives Ankalaev 64.6% at -230 odds, but the EV is negative (-0.051). This is a pass despite strong model confidence. The market has correctly priced this one.

Ankalaev’s profile is elite:

• 75.0% defensive striking
• 54.3% striking accuracy
• Strong wrestling at 21.2%

Pereira brings:

• 62.1% striking accuracy
• 63.6% finish rate
• 50.0% takedown success

The fight makes sense as Ankalaev-favored, but there’s no edge at current odds.

Dvalishvili vs Sandhagen

Merab at 72.8% probability versus -390 odds yields negative EV (-0.068). Another efficient market.

The stats favor Merab:

• 35.7% takedown rate with relentless pressure
• 56.1% defensive striking
• High volume approach

Sandhagen’s path involves:

• Matching Merab’s high volume (he can)
• Wrestling defense (34.6% takedown rate suggests he’ll struggle)
• Surviving 5 rounds with a cardio machine

The Model’s Confidence Distribution

Looking at the WT6 scores across the card:

Highest Confidence (20+):

• Veronica Hardy (31) - but EV is negative at -0.111
• Youssef Zalal (28) - negative EV at -0.114
• Merab Dvalishvili (25) - negative EV at -0.068

The pattern is clear: the market is efficiently pricing the model’s high-confidence picks. This is what happens when sports betting markets mature.

Fight Count Analysis: What It Tells Us

The ”# of Fights” column reveals experience levels that inform betting strategy:

Deep UFC Experience (15+ fights):

• Ankalaev (15), Pereira (11)
• Merab (15), Sandhagen (15)
• Rountree Jr. (17)
• Josh Emmett (15)

Limited Data Warning (≤6 fights):

• Joe Pyfer (6), Abus Magomedov (6)
• Farid Basharat (4)
• Nikolay Veretennikov (3)

The limited sample sizes on some of these fighters increases model uncertainty, which the EV calculations reflect appropriately.

What’s Missing from This Card

Notably absent: any fight where multiple models strongly agree AND create positive EV. Looking at model consensus:

• Profit Model and Plain Model show scattered agreement
• WT5 scores suggest historical consistency but don’t translate to current value
• The EV column tells the real story: market efficiency everywhere

This Week’s Betting Strategy

Given the marginal EVs and the overall market efficiency, this is a light betting week if following strict EV thresholds.

Option 1: Conservative Approach

• Pass entirely. Neither +0.033 nor +0.034 EV meets aggressive profitability thresholds.

Option 2: Marginal Value Play

• Small unit on Prochazka (-184)
• Smaller unit on Chiasson (-200)
• DO NOT PARLAY these marginal edges - variance will destroy you

My Take: I’m passing this week. The WTAI6 model’s selectivity is a feature, not a bug. In my last major analysis, I showed that being selective with marginal EV leads to better long-term results.

The Undercard Efficiency Problem

The preliminary card shows even tighter market efficiency:

• Shahbazyan (-290) vs Muniz: Model says 64.3%, EV is -0.100
• Basharat (-430) vs Gutierrez: Model says 71.0%, EV is -0.102

The underdogs are overpriced, the favorites are under-edged. Classic efficient market behavior.

Conclusion

This UFC October 4 card demonstrates an important principle in sports betting: not every event requires action. The WTAI6 model, with its empirical calibration methodology, is correctly identifying that despite confident predictions, the market has efficiently priced nearly everything.

The two marginal EV opportunities (Prochazka and Chiasson) exist, but barely. This is a weekend to enjoy the fights without forcing bets into an efficient market.

Sometimes the best bet is no bet at all.

Final Recommendations

For Entertainment Value:

• The main card delivers regardless of betting angles
• Ankalaev vs Pereira is a fascinating style matchup
• Merab vs Sandhagen should showcase elite bantamweight MMA

For Betting Value:

• Prochazka (-184) if you must play: marginal +0.033 EV
• Chiasson (-200) as a secondary option: marginal +0.034 EV
• Everything else: market has spoken, and it’s efficient

Remember, the WTAI6 model achieved 212% ROI by being selective. This card is testing that discipline. It is the first one where the recommendations for EV deviated to not betting territory vs our WT5 model.

Personally I’m still betting with the EV calculations from WT5 so the parlay at the top stands!

Good luck, and enjoy the fights!

— Chris@WolfTickets.AI