UFC October 11, 2025: Next-Gen Analytics with Radar Charts

TL;DR

I still have not finished integrating WT6 with the prior work on WolfTickets.AI.

This blog, however is working well as a place to iterate on ideas weekly without introducing breaking changes to the main site.

Top Betting Opportunities:

Single Bet: Ricardo Ramos (-215) vs Kaan Ofli - Strong consensus between ML and analytics, +6.5% EV

Parlay Play: Oliveira + Ramos - Both fighters bring finishing threats with favorable experience mismatches

Quick Summary:

• 12 total fights (9 analyzed, 3 skipped due to insufficient data)
• 1 strong single bet recommendation (Ramos)
• 1 parlay opportunity leveraging finishing ability
• 2 marginal opportunities with conflicting signals
• New radar chart analytics reveal stylistic mismatches

Event Overview

• Total Fights: 12 (9 analyzed, 3 skipped)
• Positive EV Opportunities: 3
• Strong Consensus Picks: 3 fights
• Disagreement Cases: 4 fights (where ML and analytics diverge)
• Weight Classes: 7 represented

This card presents an interesting challenge: the efficient betting market has priced most fights correctly, but our dual-system approach helps identify where value exists.

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Model Predictions Summary

Below is a complete breakdown of all predictions from both our WT5 (legacy) and WT6 (current) models. The table shows win probabilities, expected value (EV), odds, and recommendations.

Model Key:

• WT6 ML: Current generation machine learning model (Latest ensemble model with entirely new features)
• WT5: Legacy WolfTickets model
• Profit Model (O) / Plain Model (P): Supporting models from WolfTickets system

Main Card

Fighter	WT6 ML	WT6 EV	WT5	Profit	Plain	Fights	Odds	Recommendation
Charles Oliveira	54.1%	+2.7%	1	14		35	-106	MARGINAL
Mateusz Gamrot	45.9%				1	11	-120
Deiveson Figueiredo	32.8%			0		19	+220	AVOID
Montel Jackson	67.2%	-7.5%	28		22	11	-295	AVOID (overpriced)
Vicente Luque	26.7%			1	0	23	+350	AVOID
Joel Alvarez	73.3%	-10.6%	24			9	-520	AVOID (overpriced)
Jhonata Diniz			6	16	4	4	-106	SKIP (debut)
Mario Pinto						1	-120	SKIP (debut)
Ricardo Ramos	74.8%	+6.5%	12	15	17	14	-215	✅ BET
Kaan Ofli	25.2%					2	+164
Lucas Almeida				6	1	5	+130	SKIP (debut)
Michael Aswell			5			1	-166	SKIP (debut)

Preliminary Card

Fighter	WT6 ML	WT6 EV	WT5	Profit	Plain	Fights	Odds	Recommendation
Jafel Filho	55.5%	+4.5%	9	15	9	4	-104	MARGINAL
Clayton Carpenter	44.5%					3	-122
Vitor Petrino	74.0%	-0.7%	12	9	3	7	-295	AVOID
Thomas Petersen	26.0%					4	+220
Lucas Rocha				9		1	-130	SKIP (debut)
Stewart Nicoll			5		13	1	+102	SKIP (debut)
Valter Walker	73.3%	-2.9%	16	12	15	4	-320	AVOID
Mohammed Usman	26.7%					6	+240
Julia Polastri	74.0%	-7.1%	19	18	4	3	-430	AVOID (overpriced)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz	26.0%					18	+300
Luan Lacerda	65.3%	-7.3%	17	16	8	2	-265	AVOID
Saimon Oliveira	34.7%					3	+200

Legend:

• Bold fighter names = WT6 predicted winner
• WT6 ML = Win probability from current WT6 model
• WT6 EV = Expected Value from WT6 (positive = betting opportunity)
• WT5, Profit, Plain = Confidence percentiles from legacy models (higher = stronger prediction; empty = model favors opponent)
• Fights = Total UFC fights for each fighter

Key Insights:

• WT6 and all legacy models agree strongly on Ramos (best bet)
• Both WT6 and legacy models show Jackson and Polastri win, but odds are overpriced
• Filho shows positive EV with moderate model agreement
• All three skipped fights lack WT6 predictions due to fighter debuts

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TOP BET: Ricardo Ramos vs Kaan Ofli

Main Card • Featherweight

Why Both Models Agree

ML Perspective (74.8% win probability):

• Ramos has significant experience advantage: 17 UFC fights vs Ofli’s 2
• Superior grappling: 57.5% takedown accuracy (2.57 per fight) vs Ofli’s 0.0%
• Better UFC-level competition exposure (faced Lerone Murphy, Zubaira Tukhugov)
• Positive expected value at -215 odds (+6.5%)
• The betting market correctly identifies this as Ramos’s get-right fight

Fighter Analytics Perspective (+23.7% edge):

• Ramos averages 62.0% across all categories (vs Ofli’s 38.3%)
• Dominance in grappling where Ofli is catastrophically weak
• Output disparity: Ramos lands 2.97 significant strikes per minute vs Ofli’s 1.18
• 6-inch reach advantage (72” vs 66”) helps his spinning techniques land
• Experience gap is massive: veteran with 17 UFC fights vs 0-2 UFC record

The Nightmare Matchup:

This fight directly attacks Ofli’s worst vulnerability: his 15% takedown defense. Against Muhammad Naimov, Ofli was taken down repeatedly and controlled for over three minutes in Round 3, unable to create scrambles or wall-walk. Ramos’s 57.5% takedown accuracy and inside trip game from the clinch will overwhelm Ofli’s nonexistent defensive wrestling.

On the feet, Ramos’s spinning back elbow exploits Ofli’s poor striking defense (32.95%). Against Danny Chavez in 2022, Ramos backed him to the fence, feinted a level change to drop his hands, then uncorked a spinning elbow that ended the night. Ofli gets off-balance easily and ate shots when he overcommitted against Santos (exactly the scenarios where Ramos’s unorthodox spinning techniques shine).

The Risk Factor - Submission Vulnerability:

Ramos’s Achilles heel is his neck defense. He was guillotined in back-to-back losses to Julian Erosa and Charles Jourdain—both in Round 1—after aggressive takedown entries left his neck exposed. However, Ofli’s 0% takedown success rate means he can’t create those guillotine opportunities. Ofli’s supposed grappling strength won’t matter because he can’t initiate takedowns and can’t stop Ramos’s.

Why This Is Parlay-Worthy:

Ramos is 2-5 in his last seven, but this matchup screams “get-right fight.” Ofli is 0-2 in the UFC and fighting for his job with zero momentum. The experience gap (17 UFC fights vs 2), output disparity (2.97 vs 1.18 significant strikes per minute), and grappling mismatch make this one of the clearest advantages on the card. At +6.5% EV, this is the card’s best single-bet value, and pairing it with Oliveira’s finishing threats creates a parlay built on two fighters with multiple paths to victory against overmatched opponents.

Radar Chart Analysis

The radar comparison shows Ramos with clear advantages in:

• Grappling Offense (57.5% takedowns)
• Experience (8-6 record vs 0-2-1)
• Finishing ability (though both are decision fighters)

Ofli’s only potential advantages:

• Striking Defense (60.4% vs 54.8%)
• But this hasn’t translated to wins yet

Betting Recommendation

BET Ricardo Ramos (-215)

• Unit size: 2-3 units (strong confidence)
• This is the card’s best opportunity
• Both systems agree, creating high-confidence play
• +6.5% EV is significant in an efficient market

Risk Factors:

• Ofli is young and improving
• Limited UFC data on Ofli means uncertainty
• Featherweight can be volatile
• Never bet more than you can afford to lose

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Main Card Deep Dives

Fight 1: Charles Oliveira vs Mateusz Gamrot

Lightweight • ⚠️ DISAGREEMENT CASE

This Is a Teaching Moment

The ML model gives Oliveira a slight edge (54.1%), but the fighter analytics strongly favor Gamrot with an 85.2% average percentile vs Oliveira’s 64.2%. This disagreement shows tension between current statistical reality and our model’s pattern recognition.

Where Gamrot Dominates:

• Striking Defense: 76.7% vs 33.9% (massive gap)
• Grappling Defense: 97.3% vs 49.1% (elite TDD), 73.18% recent defense for Oliveira
• Cardio: 93.7% vs 24.9% (cardio machine vs known to fade late)

Where Oliveira Has Edge:

• Finishing Threat: 58.8% finish rate (2.48 submissions per fight vs Gamrot’s 0.14)
• Offensive Grappling: His guillotine from standing has finished Dustin Poirier and David Teymur
• Experience: 35 UFC fights with elite wins, but also 2-3 in last five
• Reach: 74” vs 70” gives 4-inch advantage for distance control

The Tactical Puzzle:

Gamrot’s signature head-outside single leg creates a dangerous vulnerability to Oliveira’s guillotine expertise. When Gamrot shoots with his head outside to avoid counter knees, Oliveira can punch through and position his elbow on Gamrot’s throat (the same setup that finished Poirier in Round 3).

However, Gamrot’s relentless pace (16.21 takedown attempts per fight) could wear down Oliveira’s 35-year-old body. The Polish fighter showed against Dan Hooker that when his initial shots are stuffed, he immediately chains to secondary and tertiary attacks, never remaining static. Oliveira’s 73.18% recent takedown defense suggests he’ll get taken down multiple times.

Age and Durability Concerns:

Oliveira’s recent knockout loss to Ilia Topuria exposed a fundamental problem: at 35, he stands too tall and doesn’t move his head enough against patient, precise boxers. Topuria opened a cut early, then landed a right-left combination that finished him at 2:27 of Round 1. This same defensive vulnerability shows in Oliveira’s 39.02% striking defense, though he bounced back with a dominant win over Chandler before the Topuria loss.

The Parlay Case:

Despite the analytics favoring Gamrot, Oliveira presents too many finishing threats to ignore at near pick’em odds (-106). His submission wizardry from any position—guillotines, triangles, rear-naked chokes—creates paths to victory that pure statistics struggle to quantify. Gamrot’s predictable 1-2 combinations and tendency to allow scrambles when opponents work defensively from guard could prove fatal against Oliveira’s unconventional “hand on heart” grip work that frustrated Arman Tsarukyan.

Recommendation: This fight anchors our parlay because Oliveira’s finishing ability at near-even odds provides value. His experience against elite competition and creative submission attacks give him multiple paths to victory. Yes, Gamrot’s cardio and takedown volume are elite, but keeping Oliveira on the ground without getting submitted is a minefield (as seen when Gamrot struggled to maintain top position against Hooker). The model disagreement signals uncertainty, but Oliveira’s ceiling is higher.

Radar Chart: Visual Disagreement

The radar chart visually shows why this is a disagreement case - Gamrot’s defensive superiority (red areas in defense categories) vs Oliveira’s finishing threat and experience edges.

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Fight 2: Deiveson Figueiredo vs Montel Jackson

Bantamweight • ✅ STRONG AGREEMENT - AVOID FIGUEIREDO

Why Both Models Favor Jackson:

ML Model: 67.2% win probability, but negative EV at current odds Analytics: Jackson +25.4% edge (he’s the better fighter statistically)

Jackson’s Physical Dominance:

• Reach advantage: 75.5” vs 68” creates 7.5-inch differential (massive at bantamweight)
• Division record: 11 knockdowns in UFC bantamweight history (most ever)
• Striking Defense: 62.1% vs 49.5%. Jackson absorbs 0.42 head strikes/min while landing 2.28 (5-to-1 ratio)
• Elite wrestling: 56.2% takedown accuracy (division record), 3.20 TDs per fight
• Fighting at natural weight class: Fresh legs vs. Figueiredo’s difficult cut

Figueiredo’s Crisis:

The former flyweight champion arrives at bantamweight after a brutal stretch of 3 losses in his last 4 fights:

• May 2025: Cory Sandhagen finished him via second-round heel hook, exposing catastrophic gaps in his leg entanglement knowledge
• January 2023: Brandon Moreno finished him via doctor’s stoppage after landing a counter left hook that damaged Figueiredo’s eye
• Career-long vulnerability: Figueiredo “has never slipped or blocked a left hook in his life.” Moreno exploited this repeatedly across their four fights

The Technical Mismatch:

Figueiredo’s left hook blindness plays directly into Jackson’s counter-striking arsenal. Jackson can parry Figueiredo’s right hands and counter with the left hook that’s finished opponents throughout his career (see: collapsed Zac Pauga with perfect left hook after parrying Pauga’s entry).

Figueiredo’s recent 68-inch reach and move up in weight has worsened his striking differential—he now absorbs 2.43 head strikes per minute while landing only 1.75. Against Jackson’s 7.5-inch reach advantage and defensive metrics (absorbing just 0.42 head strikes/min), this becomes a nightmare matchup.

Radar Chart: Jackson’s Dominance

The visual comparison shows Jackson dominating across defensive categories and cardio - critical advantages in a 3-round fight. Figueiredo’s size disadvantage moving up from flyweight is evident in the Physical Edge category.

Recommendation: AVOID betting Figueiredo at +220. If you must bet this fight, Jackson is the play, but the -295 price tag offers no value. This is a “watch and enjoy” fight.

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Fight 3: Vicente Luque vs Joel Alvarez

Welterweight • ⚠️ DISAGREEMENT - AVOID

The Conflict:

• ML strongly favors Alvarez (73.3%)
• Analytics show nearly even matchup (Luque +2.9% edge)
• Both have negative EV at current odds

Alvarez’s Case (The 6’3” Pressure Machine):

• 77.8% finish rate (gets it done inside distance). 3 straight finishes (all Performance of the Night bonuses)
• Size advantage: 6’3” with 77” reach moving up from lightweight with fresh legs
• Body work specialist: Systematic body jab-to-knee combinations that break opponents down
• 53.7% striking accuracy with 6.94 strikes landed per minute
• Submission threat: 1.35 submissions per fight (17 career submission wins)

Luque’s Crisis (Medical Reality):

At 33 years old, Luque carries the weight of serious decline:

• Brain hemorrhage following the Geoff Neal fight (documented medical reality that fundamentally altered his durability)
• Recent record: Just 1 win in his last 5 UFC fights
• Knockout losses: Holland (Round 2 submission after knockdown) and Buckley (devastating finish) exposed a chin that can no longer absorb punishment
• Defensive vulnerability: Stands tall with head on centerline when jabbing. Neal exploited this repeatedly with counter hooks

The Medical Factor:

This isn’t speculation—Luque suffered a documented brain hemorrhage after the Neal fight. His subsequent knockout losses to Holland and Buckley showed a fighter whose body can’t recover from the wars he’s been through. Against Holland’s 6’3” frame, Luque couldn’t adjust his defensive reactions, remaining at the end of Holland’s strikes throughout.

Why the Disagreement Matters:

The radar chart shows a near-even matchup across most categories. The ML model may be overweighting Alvarez’s finishing threat (shown prominently in the chart), while Luque’s experience and well-rounded game make this closer than odds suggest.

Recommendation: AVOID. Conflicting signals indicate genuine uncertainty. At -520 for Alvarez, there’s massive risk for minimal reward. At +350 for Luque, the ML model doesn’t support the bet. Pass.

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Preliminary Card Highlights

Fight 5: Jafel Filho vs Clayton Carpenter

Flyweight • MARGINAL with Slight Disagreement

• ML: Filho 55.5%, EV: +4.5%, MARGINAL
• Analytics: Carpenter -11.9% edge (66.4% vs 54.5%)
• Both fighters are developing (2-2 UFC vs 2-1 UFC records)
• Limited UFC sample size creates high uncertainty

Why Not Include in the Parlay?

Despite Filho’s positive EV, this fight presents too much uncertainty for a parlay leg:

Filho’s Catastrophic Cardio Risk: Against Allan Nascimento, Filho dominated Round 1 with mount positions and near-finish guillotines, then gassed completely. By Round 2 he was “unable to break free” from bottom position, and Round 3 saw him “stretched out and close to helpless.” His overzealous early pace—constantly hunting submissions from imperfect positions—creates unsustainable energy drain.

Carpenter’s Blueprint Exists: Carpenter’s patient, control-oriented approach is exactly what beat Filho. Against Tagir Ulanbekov, Carpenter showed he can survive grappling pressure and accumulate control time. If Carpenter survives Filho’s dangerous first 5-7 minutes without getting submitted, Filho’s technical execution deteriorates dramatically.

The Submission Volume Wild Card: Filho attempts 2.6 submissions per 15 minutes and has finished both recent wins by first-round submission. His Dagestani handcuff rear-naked choke (trapping one hand before punching in the choke) finished Ode Osbourne in Round 1. Carpenter has never faced this volume of submission threats—his zero offensive threat from bottom positions means if Filho gets his back, Carpenter lacks the scrambling ability to escape.

Analytics Disagreement Signals Genuine Uncertainty: The ML sees Filho’s first-round finishing ability (55.5%), but analytics favor Carpenter’s positional control and higher striking accuracy (59.0% vs 41.7%). Both are 2-2 and 2-1 in the UFC respectively—extremely limited data sets that make predictions unreliable.

Parlay Philosophy: We built the Oliveira + Ramos parlay on fighters with extensive UFC histories (35 and 17 fights) facing opponents with clear, exploitable weaknesses. Filho vs Carpenter is two developing fighters with 4 and 3 UFC fights—the variance is too high. This is a “watch and learn” fight, not a parlay component.

The radar chart shows Carpenter with advantages across most categories, particularly in striking defense and grappling. Filho’s slightly higher percentages in grappling defense may not be enough to overcome Carpenter’s overall edge.

Recommendation: Marginal opportunity at best. High uncertainty due to limited UFC data on both fighters.

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Fight 6: Vitor Petrino vs Thomas Petersen

Heavyweight • DISAGREEMENT - AVOID

• ML: Petrino 74.0%, EV: -0.7%, AVOID
• Analytics: Petersen -7.7% edge (78.3% vs 70.6%)
• Petersen has superior striking (58.6% accuracy vs 44.1%)
• Heavyweight volatility makes this unpredictable

Why the Models Disagree:

Petrino’s Strengths (ML Favors):

• Heavyweight debut domination: Finished Austen Lane at 4:16 of Round 1 via rear-naked choke after catching a kick
• Submission prowess: Caught Lane’s kick past 1:00, hurled him to canvas, moved to full mount “like a hot knife through butter,” threatened arm-triangles and keylocks before securing RNC
• Weight class benefits: Weighed 249 lbs at heavyweight (actually outweighed career heavyweight Lane). No more brutal 205 lb cuts
• Athletic advantages: 77” reach, explosive takedown mechanics, submission chain wrestling

Petersen’s Strengths (Analytics Favor):

• Wrestling pedigree: 2x Minnesota State champion, NCJAA national champion
• Systematic leg kick approach: TKO’d Don’Tale Mayes via accumulated leg kick damage
• Wrestling dominance vs. Usman: Landed all 9 takedown attempts, 13:49 control time
• 58.6% striking accuracy with thudding left hand power

The Critical Flaw:

Petersen’s inability to hold top position against Gaziev exposed a fatal weakness. After landing an explosive takedown and taking Gaziev’s back, he couldn’t keep the big man down. Gaziev exploded up immediately, returned to striking, and knocked Petersen out cold at 3:12 of Round 1 with a picture-perfect right hand.

The Stylistic Problem:

Petersen’s leg-kick heavy approach plays directly into Petrino’s kick-catching ability. Against Lane, Petrino caught one kick and finished the fight in 4:16. Petersen’s systematic leg kicks—his primary weapon—create the exact entry Petrino needs for takedowns into his submission game.

The radar visualization reveals why this is a disagreement case - Petersen dominates across defensive categories and has superior finishing threat. Petrino’s ML advantage may be based on patterns the analytics don’t capture, but at heavyweight, one mistake can end the fight.

Recommendation: Avoid. Model disagreement + heavyweight chaos = stay away.

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Fight 7: Valter Walker vs Mohammed Usman

Heavyweight • SUBMISSION SPECIALIST VS SLOW STARTER

• ML: Walker 73.3%, EV: -2.9%, AVOID
• Analytics: Nearly even (Usman -0.8% edge, 67.8% vs 66.9%)
• Walker has finish advantage (75.0% vs 16.7%)
• Priced at -320 with no value

Walker’s Historic Heel Hook Streak:

Walker has made UFC history as the first heavyweight to win three consecutive fights via heel hooks, all in Round 1:

• vs. Kennedy Nzechukwu (UFC Nashville): Finished at 0:54 with inverted heel hook mid-scramble
• vs. Don’Tale Mayes: Executed right straight-weave-left hook combination, secured heel hook finish
• vs. Junior Tafa: Bypassed positional control entirely to attack leg submission directly

The Technical Edge:

Walker’s 6’6” frame with 78” reach creates clinch dominance, and his 70% takedown accuracy on 8.14 attempts per fight means relentless grappling pressure. Once on the ground, his Brazilian jiu-jitsu pedigree takes over—he recognizes leg vulnerabilities mid-scramble and abandons conventional positions to secure submissions.

Usman’s Vulnerability:

Usman’s 0.00 submissions per fight absorbed suggests he’s never faced a leg lock specialist like Walker. His slow starts (consistently loses opening rounds) play directly into Walker’s first-round finishing pattern. Against Hamdy Abdelwahab, Usman ate heavy leg kicks in Round 1 that had him “clearly uncomfortable” before making adjustments in later rounds.

Why Nearly Even Analytics Are Misleading:

The analytics show them statistically close because both have similar striking outputs, but they miss Walker’s submission specialization—a threat Usman has never defended. Walker’s 50% takedown defense is concerning, but Usman’s limited offensive wrestling (14% accuracy) won’t exploit it.

The radar chart shows an incredibly close matchup - both fighters are nearly identical across most categories. Walker’s finishing threat advantage (75% shown in the chart) is his primary edge, but Usman’s low finish rate (17%) suggests he’s durable. This visual confirms it’s essentially a coin flip.

Recommendation: Avoid at -320. No edge despite model confidence.

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Fight 8: Julia Polastri vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Women’s Strawweight • YOUTH VS. DECLINE

• ML: Polastri 74.0%, EV: -7.1%, AVOID
• Analytics: Polastri +13.4% edge (62.1% vs 48.7%)
• Polastri dominates grappling (75.0% vs 22.7%)
• Kowalkiewicz is veteran but declining (9-9 record, 39 years old)

Polastri’s Clinical Dominance:

Polastri’s double collar tie is her signature weapon. She flashes a jab, secures the tie as opponents slip, then unloads knees and elbows. Against Cory McKenna, this technique was devastating. Against Loopy Godinez (ranked opponent), she landed 58 significant strikes in Round 3 alone (one of the highest outputs in recent strawweight history).

Her opportunistic takedown game (75% accuracy) sets up submission threats (0.33 per fight). Against Knutsson, she secured back control with a body triangle and forced a verbal submission from injury.

Kowalkiewicz’s Collapse:

At 39 years old, the Polish veteran has lost 2 straight and 4 of her last 6:

• Speed and athleticism gone: Against Denise Gomes, the 15-year age gap was glaring. Gomes caught her “on both sides of her temple with looping punches” repeatedly
• Takedown defense collapsed: 34% career rate (32% recent). She’s being reversed even in the clinch, her supposed strength
• Cardio issues: Against Yan Xiaonan, she “struggled to sustain” pace as “cardio began to decline”

The Mismatch:

Polastri’s youth and aggressive clinch work will neutralize Kowalkiewicz’s only remaining weapon. When Kowalkiewicz couldn’t control Gomes in the clinch (got reversed by a younger opponent), it signaled the end of her elite days. Polastri’s double collar tie, superior speed, and submission threats create a showcase fight.

The radar chart clearly shows Polastri’s dominance - she leads in virtually every category, with her grappling offense advantage (75 vs 23) being particularly stark. Kowalkiewicz’s declining performance is evident across the board. This is a rare case where both systems agree strongly, but the market has already priced it correctly.

Recommendation: Both systems agree Polastri wins, but -430 odds are already overpriced. Avoid.

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Fight 9: Luan Lacerda vs Saimon Oliveira

Bantamweight • DESPERATION FIGHT

• ML: Lacerda 65.3%, EV: -7.3%, AVOID
• Analytics: Lacerda +12.0% edge (43.7% vs 31.7%)
• Lacerda 0-2 in UFC, Oliveira 0-3 in UFC
• Both fighting for UFC survival

Lacerda’s Dangerous Submission Game:

Lacerda brings modern leg entanglement systems (0.63 submissions per fight) built around saddle positions. His signature sequence: parrying kicks across his body and countering with power hooks. Against Cody Stamann, he caught Stamann’s left kick in Round 3, swept it across, and drove a left hook into Stamann’s orbital causing immediate swelling, then ground his glove cuff into the damaged eye for a doctor stoppage.

The Fatal Flaw: Against Da’Mon Blackshear, Lacerda’s leg lock obsession became his downfall. He remained face-down holding the leg without rolling motions, allowing Blackshear to establish base and rain ground strikes. He was knocked out at 4:38 of Round 2 while tunnel-visioned on the submission.

Oliveira’s Complete Collapse:

Oliveira enters on a brutal 0-3 UFC skid with three consecutive stoppage/decision losses:

• Most recent (March 2025): Knocked out by David Martinez at 4:38 of Round 1 after a two-year layoff recovering from intestinal rupture surgery
• Against Daniel Marcos: Systematically broken down by body attacks. Escalated to spinning techniques when his offense stalled (technical bankruptcy)
• UFC debut vs. Gravely: Spammed guillotines after all 11 takedowns, never finished one

The Verdict:

Both fighters are flawed, but Oliveira’s complete technical bankruptcy (rushes without setups, spins when tired, 0.0% takedown success rate) makes him the more compromised fighter. Lacerda’s reactive game and leg locks should find openings against an opponent who’s never defended leg attacks and has been finished twice in his last three.

The radar chart reveals why this is labeled “low quality” - both fighters score below 50 across nearly all categories. Lacerda has a slight edge across the board, but these are two struggling fighters with 0-2 and 0-3 UFC records respectively. The visual comparison shows consistency in Lacerda being marginally better, but neither fighter belongs in elite company.

Recommendation: Avoid. Poor quality fight with no betting value.

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Skipped Fights (Insufficient Data)

The following fights were excluded from analysis due to UFC debut status (minimum 2 UFC fights required for reliable analytics):

1. Jhonata Diniz vs Mario Pinto (Heavyweight) - Pinto lacking data
2. Lucas Almeida vs Michael Aswell (Featherweight) - Aswell lacking data
3. Lucas Rocha vs Stewart Nicoll (Flyweight) - Both lacking data

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Key Insights & Patterns

When Models Disagree

Biggest Disagreement: Oliveira vs Gamrot

• ML: Oliveira 54.1%
• Analytics: Gamrot -21.0% edge (strongly favors Gamrot)

How to interpret:

• Analytics show current statistical reality
• ML captures pattern recognition from historical data
• When analytics strongly favor underdog → potential value opportunity
• But disagreement = higher uncertainty, bet smaller or pass

Actionable Advice: When you see strong analytics disagreement with ML, look at:

1. Recent form vs career trajectory
2. Stylistic matchup implications
3. Is the underdog improving or favorite declining?
4. Bet smaller on disagreement cases

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Agreement Signals Confidence

3 Strong Consensus Picks This Card:

1. Ricardo Ramos (✅ BET)
2. Montel Jackson (but overpriced)
3. Julia Polastri (but overpriced)

Historical Performance: When both ML and fighter analytics agree with strong conviction, our hit rate increases significantly. This is why Ramos is the top bet - both systems see the same fight outcome.

Why Agreement Matters:

• ML finds patterns humans might miss
• Analytics shows statistical reality
• Agreement = multiple independent signals pointing same direction
• Reduces risk of model blind spots

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Weight Class Analysis

Heaviest Card: 4 heavyweight fights

• Heavyweight volatility: One punch changes everything
• Lower total strike numbers, higher per-strike impact
• Analytics less predictive due to small sample sizes
• Finish rates highest at heavyweight

Implications for Betting:

• Be more conservative with heavyweight bets
• Model uncertainty is higher
• Favor fighters with better chins/durability
• Expect more first-round finishes

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Final Recommendations

✅ TOP PLAY: PARLAY

Charles Oliveira (-106) + Ricardo Ramos (-215)

• Combined Odds: 2.18x payout
• $10 bet returns $21.80
• Unit Size: 1

Why This Parlay Works:

• Both fighters have extensive UFC experience (35 and 17 fights)
• Both face opponents with exploitable weaknesses (Gamrot’s submission defense, Ofli’s takedown defense)
• Multiple paths to victory: Oliveira’s submissions, Ramos’s grappling control
• Ramos alone has +6.5% EV as best single bet on card
• Combined EV creates favorable parlay math at 2.18x payout

✅ SINGLE BET

Ricardo Ramos (-215) - Strong consensus, +6.5% EV, 2-3 unit play if betting straight

⚠️ MARGINAL (Proceed with Caution)

Charles Oliveira (-106) - Near pick’em odds with finishing ability, marginal as standalone but strong parlay component

Jafel Filho (-104) - Minimal edge, high uncertainty due to limited UFC sample size. Pass or very small unit.

Conclusion

The integration work keeps chugging along and I’ll continue to refine the best approaches to connect the older models with the new ones and then update the primary app with everything once its polished.

Good luck, and enjoy the fights!

— Chris@WolfTickets.AI

Generated with WTAI6 ML Model + Fighter Analytics System Published: October 9, 2025