UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker - November 22, 2025 Predictions
Table of Contents
TL;DR
Top Betting Opportunity:
This card features a compelling parlay opportunity combining two favorites where WT5 legacy models show strong agreement despite WT6 negative EV on individual bets.
Recommended Parlay: Ian Machado Garry (-290) + Asu Almabayev (-225) = Combined odds approximately -106
- WT5 Model Support: Garry shows weak WT5 consensus (8th percentile, -5.2% EV) and Almabayev shows strong WT5 support (18th percentile, +9.9% EV)
- Combined WT6 Probability: ~35.7% (56.9% × 62.7%)
- Why This Parlay: Both fighters are correctly predicted winners by WT6 facing significant stylistic advantages. While individually overpriced, combined parlay at -106 creates more palatable odds.
- Strategic Play: Not a positive EV bet from WT6 perspective, but offers superior odds structure for favorite-backers
Quick Summary:
- 8 total fights analyzed with WT6 predictions
- Primary parlay recommendation for strategic favorite-backing
- Model disagreements across card highlight different analytical approaches
- Detailed parlay analysis with radar chart breakdowns
- Focus on stylistic advantages and betting structure optimization
Event Overview
Total Fights: 8 (6 main card, 2 preliminary)
Betting Recommendation: 1 strategic parlay combining two favorites at -106 odds
Weight Classes: 6 represented (Lightweight, Welterweight, Light Heavyweight, Middleweight, Heavyweight, Flyweight, Bantamweight)
This Fight Night card features Arman Tsarukyan facing Dan Hooker in the main event—a grappling-heavy fighter taking on a veteran striker in what promises to be an intriguing style clash. While the headliner doesn’t offer betting value (correctly priced favorite), the card presents a strategic parlay opportunity for those looking to back favorites with better odds structure.
The Garry + Almabayev Parlay (-106)
Combining Ian Machado Garry (-290) and Asu Almabayev (-225) creates more palatable -106 parlay odds instead of prohibitive individual prices. While WT6 sees this as negative EV (35.7% combined probability vs 51.5% break-even), both fighters are correctly predicted winners by WT6 with clear stylistic advantages:
- Garry: Massive physical advantages (93.4 percentile), elite striking offense (91.1%), undefeated 15-0 record
- Almabayev: Grappling superiority (85.0%), strong WT5 support (+9.9% EV with 18th percentile consensus), consistent finishing threat
Strategic Value vs Statistical EV:
This parlay represents a shift from pure statistical expected value betting to strategic odds structure optimization. By combining two overpriced favorites, you risk $106 to win $100 instead of $515 to win $100 on individual bets. The WT5 legacy model’s strong support of Almabayev provides additional confidence where WT6 is more conservative.
Several fights on this card show interesting model disagreements (Spivac-Gaziev, Almakhan-Topuria, Naurdiev-Loder) highlighting different perspectives on explosive power vs technical control—valuable for understanding how different analytical frameworks evaluate the same matchups.
Model Predictions Summary
Below is a complete breakdown of all predictions from both our WT6 (current) and WT5 (legacy) models. The table shows win probabilities, expected value (EV), odds, and recommendations.
Main Card
| Fighter | WT6 ML | WT6 EV | WT5 | Profit | Plain | WT5 EV | Fights | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arman Tsarukyan | 70.7% | -16.0% | 29 | 20 | 13 | -5.0 | 11 | -530 |
| Dan Hooker | 22 | +360 | ||||||
| Belal Muhammad | 12 | 20 | +215 | |||||
| Ian Machado Garry | 62.7% | -15.7% | 8 | 4 | -5.2 | 10 | -290 | |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 68.6% | -4.2% | 18 | 16 | 10 | 7.7 | 15 | -250 |
| Alonzo Menifield | 16 | +190 | ||||||
| Jack Hermansson | 1 | 18 | +200 | |||||
| Myktybek Orolbai | 61.3% | -15.6% | 22 | 0 | 6.6 | 3 | -265 | |
| Serghei Spivac | 51.7% | +15.6% | 9 | 13 | 14 | +124 | ||
| Shamil Gaziev | 5 | -1.1 | 4 | -158 | ||||
| Alex Perez | 1 | 6 | 12 | +172 | ||||
| Asu Almabayev | 56.9% | -17.8% | 18 | 9.9 | 6 | -225 |
Preliminary Card
| Fighter | WT6 ML | WT6 EV | WT5 | Profit | Plain | WT5 EV | Fights | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bekzat Almakhan | 58.3% | +13.8% | 4 | 2 | -104 | |||
| Aleksandre Topuria | 17 | 21 | 22.2 | 1 | -122 | |||
| Ismail Naurdiev | 62.5% | +8.1% | 7 | 11 | 6 | 6.2 | 6 | -138 |
| Ryan Loder | 2 | +108 |
Table Key:
- Bold fighter names = WT6 predicted winner
- WT6 ML = Win probability from current WT6 model (AutoGluon ensemble with 57 features)
- WT6 EV = Expected Value from WT6 (positive = betting opportunity)
- WT5 = Legacy WolfTickets model confidence percentile
- Profit = Profit Model confidence percentile from WolfTickets system
- Plain = Plain Model confidence percentile from WolfTickets system
- WT5 EV = Expected Value from legacy WT5 model (positive = betting opportunity)
- Fights = Total UFC fights for each fighter
- Note: Higher percentiles in WT5/Profit/Plain indicate stronger predictions; empty cells mean model favors opponent
Key Insights:
- PRIMARY PARLAY RECOMMENDATION: Ian Machado Garry (-290) + Asu Almabayev (-225) = Combined -106 odds
- Combined WT6 Probability: 35.7% (56.9% × 62.7%) - while negative EV, offers strategic value for favorite-backers
- Garry’s Stylistic Edge: Massive physical advantages (93.4% vs 60.4%), elite striking offense (91.1%), undefeated 15-0 record
- Almabayev’s WT5 Support: Legacy models show +9.9% EV with 18th percentile consensus despite WT6’s negative view
- Parlay Logic: Combining two overpriced favorites (-290 and -225) creates more palatable -106 combined odds
- Main Event Correctly Priced: Both WT6 (-16.0% EV) and WT5 (-5.0% EV) agree Tsarukyan at -530 offers no value despite being the likely winner
- Model Disagreements Throughout Card: Several fights show WT6 vs WT5 disagreements, highlighting different perspectives on explosive power vs technical control
- Strategic vs Statistical: This card separates strategic parlay opportunities (better odds structure) from pure statistical +EV plays
PARLAY RECOMMENDATION: Ian Machado Garry + Asu Almabayev
Combined Odds: Approximately -106 (1.94 decimal)
While both fighters show negative individual EV from WT6’s perspective, combining them into a parlay creates a more strategic betting opportunity for those looking to back the favorites on this card.
The Parlay Case
Ian Machado Garry (-290):
- WT6: 62.7% win probability, -15.7% EV as straight bet
- WT5: Weak consensus (8th percentile, -5.2% EV)
- Why He Wins: Massive physical advantages (93.4% vs 60.4% physical edge), elite striking offense (91.1%), and undefeated 15-0 record. Despite overpricing, he’s the correct pick against Muhammad.
Asu Almabayev (-225):
- WT6: 56.9% win probability, -17.8% EV as straight bet
- WT5: Strong consensus (18th percentile, +9.9% EV)
- Why He Wins: Grappling superiority (85.0% vs 73.3%), experience edge (81.3% vs 97.5% for Perez shows both are experienced), and strong finishing threat (70.0%).
Combined Parlay Analysis:
- Parlay Odds: -106 (implied 51.5% probability needed to break even)
- WT6 Combined Probability: 35.7% (56.9% × 62.7%)
- Why This Works Better: By combining two overpriced favorites, you get more palatable odds (-106 instead of risking heavy juice individually)
Why Both Fighters Should Win
Garry’s Path:
The radar chart from the main card analysis shows Garry’s overwhelming physical advantages. His 93.4 percentile physical edge (height, reach) combined with 91.1 percentile striking offense creates significant problems for Muhammad. While Muhammad brings elite experience (99.1%) and strong grappling offense (86.7%), Garry’s undefeated streak and physical tools suggest he can implement his game plan.
Garry’s 80.0 percentile striking defense matches up well with Muhammad’s 67.8 percentile striking offense. This is fundamentally a fight where the younger, physically superior fighter with elite striking should be able to control range and outpoint the veteran.
Almabayev’s Path:
The flyweight division matchup sees Almabayev bringing superior grappling offense (85.0% vs 73.3%) and consistent finishing threat (70.0%). Perez, despite his experience advantage (97.5 percentile), shows defensive vulnerabilities that Almabayev can exploit.
Almabayev’s 75.0 percentile striking defense should allow him to weather Perez’s striking (66.3 percentile striking offense) while working for takedowns. Once on the ground, his grappling superiority becomes the deciding factor. His six UFC fights have shown consistent performance, and at 21-2 overall, he’s proven across multiple organizations.
The Parlay Logic
Why Not Straight Bets?
At -290 and -225 individually, the juice is prohibitive. You’d need to risk $290 to win $100 on Garry and $225 to win $100 on Almabayev—terrible risk/reward even if they’re correct picks.
Why the Parlay Makes Sense:
By combining them at -106, you only need to risk $106 to win $100. While the combined probability drops to 35.7% (well below the 51.5% needed to break even), the parlay serves a different strategic purpose:
- “Chalk” Parlay for Conservative Bettors: If you believe these favorites should both win but can’t stomach the individual prices, the parlay offers better payout structure
- WT5 Support on Almabayev: The legacy models showing +9.9% EV on Almabayev (18th percentile consensus) provides some confidence despite WT6’s negative view
- Stylistic Dominance: Both fighters have clear stylistic paths to victory—physical advantages for Garry, grappling superiority for Almabayev
Risk Factors
Combined Probability Warning:
WT6’s 35.7% combined probability is significantly below the 51.5% break-even point at -106 odds. This means the model sees this as negative EV (-15.8% combined EV approximately). The parlay is offered for strategic reasons, not because it shows positive expected value from WT6’s statistical perspective.
Individual Fight Risks:
- Garry: Muhammad’s elite experience and grappling could grind out a decision if he can close distance and neutralize Garry’s physical advantages
- Almabayev: Perez’s veteran savvy and striking defense (91.7%) could keep the fight standing where his experience becomes more valuable
Parlay Vulnerability:
If either fight goes wrong, the entire bet loses. With a 35.7% probability of both winning, there’s a 64.3% chance of losing the parlay.
Betting Recommendation: PARLAY Garry + Almabayev (-106)
Unit Sizing: 1-2 units (lower confidence due to negative WT6 EV, but offered as strategic alternative to heavy favorite straight bets)
Who Should Make This Bet:
- Bettors who want to back both favorites but can’t stomach the individual juice
- Those who value WT5’s +9.9% EV on Almabayev despite WT6 disagreement
- Parlay enthusiasts looking for shorter-odds combinations with clear stylistic logic
Who Should Avoid This Bet:
- Strict positive EV bettors (WT6 shows this as -15.8% combined EV approximately)
- Those uncomfortable with the 35.7% combined win probability
- Bettors who prefer the individual value bets (Spivac, Almakhan, Naurdiev) with positive WT6 EV
This parlay represents a strategic alternative for those who believe in both favorites despite the overpricing. The -106 combined odds create better payout structure than individual bets, though the statistical expectation remains negative from WT6’s perspective.
Ian Machado Garry (-290) + Asu Almabayev (-225) = Combined -106
- Combined WT6 Probability: 35.7% (56.9% × 62.7%)
- Why This Parlay: Both fighters are correctly predicted winners by WT6 with clear stylistic advantages. While individually overpriced at -290 and -225, combining them creates more palatable -106 odds for those backing favorites.
- Garry’s Edge: Massive physical advantages (93.4% vs 60.4%), elite striking offense (91.1%), undefeated 15-0 record
- Almabayev’s Edge: Grappling superiority (85.0% vs 73.3%), WT5 shows +9.9% EV (18th percentile consensus)
- Risk Factor: WT6 sees this as negative EV (-15.8% combined approximately) with only 35.7% combined win probability. Offered as strategic alternative to heavy juice individual bets, not as positive EV play.
- Unit Sizing: 1-2 units (strategic play for favorite-backers, not recommended for strict +EV bettors)
Conclusion
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker delivers a strategic parlay opportunity that transforms two overpriced favorites into a more palatable betting option.
The Garry + Almabayev Parlay at -106
The Ian Machado Garry (-290) + Asu Almabayev (-225) parlay offers superior odds structure compared to individual bets. While WT6 sees this as negative EV (35.7% combined probability vs 51.5% break-even), both fighters are correctly predicted winners with clear stylistic advantages that justify consideration:
Garry’s Dominance Path:
- Massive physical advantages (93.4 percentile vs Muhammad’s 60.4%)
- Elite striking offense (91.1 percentile) with undefeated 15-0 record
- Stylistic control over Muhammad’s veteran grappling through range and reach
Almabayev’s Technical Edge:
- Grappling superiority (85.0% vs Perez’s 73.3%)
- WT5 legacy models strongly support (+9.9% EV, 18th percentile consensus)
- Consistent finishing threat (70.0 percentile) across six UFC fights
The Strategic Logic:
By combining these heavily-juiced favorites (-290 and -225 individually), you risk $106 to win $100 instead of prohibitive individual prices requiring $290 and $225 respectively. The parlay serves favorite-backers who believe in both fighters’ stylistic advantages but can’t justify the individual juice.
Important Caveats:
This is not a positive EV play from WT6’s statistical perspective—it’s a strategic alternative for those committed to backing favorites on this card. The 35.7% combined win probability sits well below the 51.5% break-even threshold. However, WT5’s strong support of Almabayev (+9.9% EV) provides additional confidence that the legacy models see value where WT6 is more conservative.
For those seeking purely statistical +EV opportunities, examining individual fights with model disagreements (Spivac-Gaziev, Almakhan-Topuria, Naurdiev-Loder) may reveal alternative approaches, though these aren’t covered in our primary recommendation.
Good luck!
