UFC 324: Gaethje vs Pimblett - Advanced Analytics Breakdown

TL;DR

Top Betting Opportunities:

1. Modestas Bukauskas (-137) vs Nikita Krylov - Krylov’s durability issues (4.9th percentile) and history of being finished 8 times make Bukauskas the smart play
2. Michael Johnson (+125) vs Alexander Hernandez - +14.4% EV with experience advantage
3. PARLAY: O’Malley (-200) + Michael Johnson (+125) - Combined odds ~+10, leveraging two strong skill advantages

Quick Summary:

• 12 total fights analyzed (5 main card, 7 preliminary)
• 2 strong BET recommendations (1 favorite, 1 underdog)
• 1 PARLAY opportunity combining elite striking with veteran savvy
• 1 remaining MARGINAL (Hokit) with weak robustness
• 7 fights to AVOID due to negative expected value
• Radar analytics reveal critical durability mismatches
• Main event Gaethje vs Pimblett shows negative EV despite Pimblett’s favor

---

Event Overview

UFC 324 presents a challenging betting card where the market has efficiently priced most favorites. Our dual-system approach (WT6 machine learning + radar analytics + legacy models) identifies exactly where value exists.

Key Statistics:

• Total Fights: 12 (5 main card, 7 preliminary card)
• Positive EV Opportunities: 4 (2 strong BET, 2 weak MARGINAL)
• Weight Classes Represented: 8 (Flyweight to Heavyweight)
• Strong Consensus Picks: 3 fights where all models agree
• Model Disagreement Cases: 4 fights where WT6 and legacy models diverge

Card Highlights:

• Main event features Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett in a lightweight clash
• Former bantamweight champion Sean O’Malley faces tough test vs Song Yadong
• Two-time strawweight champion Rose Namajunas moves up to flyweight vs Natalia Silva
• Undefeated prospect Umar Nurmagomedov faces former champion Deiveson Figueiredo
• Multiple experience mismatches create interesting stylistic matchups

The efficient betting market has correctly priced many favorites, but deeper analysis reveals critical opportunities. Our recommendations focus on exploiting durability mismatches (Bukauskas over Krylov) and experience advantages (Michael Johnson), with a parlay opportunity leveraging O’Malley’s elite striking.

---

Model Predictions Summary

Below is a complete breakdown of all predictions from both our WT6 (current) and legacy models. The table shows win probabilities, expected value (EV), odds, and recommendations.

Model Key:

• WT6 ML: Current generation machine learning model with uncertainty quantification
• WT5 (W): Legacy WolfTickets model confidence percentile
• Profit Model (O) / Plain Model (P): Supporting models from WolfTickets system
• Recommendation Tiers: BET (strong positive EV), MARGINAL (weak positive EV), AVOID (negative EV)

Main Card

Fighter	WT6 ML	WT6 EV	WT5 (W)	Profit (O)	Plain (P)	Fights	Odds	Recommendation
Justin Gaethje	41.0%			3		14	+190
Paddy Pimblett	59.0%	-14.2%	21		1	7	-225	AVOID
Sean O’Malley	66.8%	+0.2%	17	16	17	14	-200	MARGINAL
Song Yadong	33.2%					15	+170
Waldo Cortes-Acosta	34.9%			7	17	11	+285
Derrick Lewis	65.1%	-16.3%	18			30	-350	AVOID
Natalia Silva	70.8%	-12.0%	23	20	10	7	-410	AVOID
Rose Namajunas	29.2%					18	+310
Arnold Allen	40.9%			9	31	13	+215
Jean Silva	59.1%	-17.7%	5			6	-255	AVOID

Preliminary Card

Fighter	WT6 ML	WT6 EV	WT5 (W)	Profit (O)	Plain (P)	Fights	Odds	Recommendation
Umar Nurmagomedov	75.7%	-19.3%	31	22	19	8	-1500	AVOID
Deiveson Figueiredo	24.3%					20	+850
Ateba Gautier	73.1%	-17.8%	27	21	29	3	-800	AVOID
Andrey Pulyaev	26.9%					2	+550
Nikita Krylov	52.9%	+14.3%		11	11	20	+117	✅ BET
Modestas Bukauskas	47.1%		0			11	-137
Alex Perez	44.0%			9		13	+175
Charles Johnson	56.1%	-16.7%	15		2	12	-205	AVOID
Michael Johnson	50.8%	+14.4%	1	9	1	30	+125	✅ BET
Alexander Hernandez	49.2%					17	-145
Josh Hokit	68.6%	+0.4%	11	14	9	1	-215	MARGINAL
Denzel Freeman	31.4%					1	+185
Ricky Turcios	46.0%			12	9	5	+165
Cameron Smotherman	54.0%	-17.4%	0			3	-190	AVOID

Legend:

• Bold fighter names = WT6 predicted winner
• WT6 ML = Win probability from current WT6 model (%)
• WT6 EV = Expected Value from WT6 (positive = betting opportunity, negative = overpriced)
• WT5 (W), Profit (O), Plain (P) = Confidence percentiles from legacy models (higher number = stronger prediction; empty cell = model favors opponent)
• Fights = Total UFC fights for each fighter
• Odds = American format betting odds

Key Insights:

• Two clear betting opportunities emerge: Krylov and M. Johnson both show +14% EV as underdogs
• Model disagreement on Krylov-Bukauskas: WT6 favors Krylov while WT5 shows 0 percentile (strongly favors Bukauskas) - radar analytics help explain why
• M. Johnson benefits from experience: 30 UFC fights vs Hernandez’s 17, with legacy models showing slight support
• Most favorites are overpriced: Silva (-410), Nurmagomedov (-1500), Lewis (-350), Gautier (-800) all show strong negative EV
• Main event lacks value: Pimblett favored but at -225 odds the EV is -14.2%
• O’Malley and Hokit marginal: Positive EV exists but with “weak” robustness - proceed with caution

---

TOP BET #1: Modestas Bukauskas (-137) vs Nikita Krylov

Light Heavyweight • Preliminary Card

Why Bukauskas is the Smart Play

While WT6 favors Krylov with 52.9% win probability, deeper analysis reveals a critical flaw in that assessment: Krylov’s catastrophic durability (4.9th percentile) and history of being finished 8 times in the UFC. At light heavyweight, where power is amplified, this vulnerability is fatal.

The legacy WT5 model strongly supports Bukauskas, showing Krylov at the 0th percentile - meaning WT5 views this as heavily favoring Bukauskas. The Profit and Plain models show only modest support for Krylov (11th percentile), suggesting even they have reservations.

The Human Edge Over the Model:

WT6’s machine learning captures Krylov’s technical advantages but underweights the most important factor in light heavyweight: durability under fire. Krylov’s 4.9th percentile in durability & cardio isn’t just a weakness - it’s a pattern. He’s been finished via:

• TKO/KO: Multiple times when pressured
• Submission: When hurt and trying to survive
• Late-round collapses: When his cardio betrays him

Bukauskas at -137 represents reasonable value because the fight likely doesn’t go the distance, and when it ends, Krylov’s durability breaks first.

Radar Analysis: The Durability Chasm

The radar chart reveals why Bukauskas wins this fight:

Bukauskas’s Critical Advantages (Blue):

• Durability & Cardio (58.0th percentile): Absolutely massive advantage over Krylov’s 4.9th percentile
• Grappling Defense (82.9th percentile): Strong enough to neutralize Krylov’s primary weapon (85.7th grappling offense)
• Striking Defense (52.8th percentile): Better than Krylov’s poor 39.2nd percentile
• Finishing Threat (64.3rd percentile): Good enough to capitalize on Krylov’s vulnerability

Krylov’s Paper Advantages (Red):

• Grappling Offense (85.7th percentile): Elite submissions, but…
• Striking Offense (81.5th percentile): Strong output, but…
• Experience (90.9th percentile): 20 UFC fights, most ending in him being finished when losing

The Critical Reality:

Yes, Krylov has elite grappling offense (85.7th percentile). But Bukauskas’s grappling defense (82.9th percentile) is strong enough to survive those early submission attempts. Once Bukauskas survives the first round, Krylov’s durability (4.9th percentile) becomes the defining factor.

Krylov’s experience (90.9th percentile) is actually a negative indicator here - those 20 UFC fights include 8 finishes against him. He hasn’t learned to protect his chin or manage his cardio. At 37 years old, he’s not suddenly developing durability.

Bukauskas’s superior cardio (58.0th vs 4.9th percentile) means he gets stronger as Krylov fades. In later rounds, when Krylov is tired and vulnerable, Bukauskas’s finishing threat (64.3rd percentile) becomes amplified.

The Pattern Recognition

Krylov’s UFC Finish Losses:

• Gustafsson (R1 submission)
• Oezdemir (R3 TKO)
• Walker (R1 submission - Krylov was hurt before the sub)
• Rakic (R3 TKO)
• Ankalaev (R3 submission - exhausted and hurt)
• And more…

The pattern: When Krylov faces opponents who can survive his early offense and apply pressure, his durability crumbles. Bukauskas fits this profile perfectly - strong defensive wrestling (82.9th percentile), decent cardio (58.0th percentile), finishing ability (64.3rd percentile).

Betting Recommendation: 1.5-2 Units

Bet Bukauskas at -137 or better. This is the rare case where we’re fading the WT6 model’s pick because the human analysis identifies a critical vulnerability that machine learning underweights. Krylov’s 4.9th percentile durability is not a statistical quirk - it’s a career-long pattern that has led to 8 UFC finishes against him.

Why Bukauskas Wins:

1. Strong enough grappling defense (82.9th) to survive Krylov’s submissions
2. Superior cardio (58.0th vs 4.9th) ensures he’s stronger late
3. Krylov’s history of being finished when pressured
4. WT5 legacy model strongly supports Bukauskas (0th percentile for Krylov)
5. Light heavyweight power amplifies durability mismatches

Risk Factors:

• Krylov catches an early submission before Bukauskas can test his cardio
• Krylov’s striking offense (81.5th percentile) lands early and often
• Experience gap (20 UFC fights vs 11) helps Krylov find the finish

Why We’re Still Betting It: The odds at -137 ($1.37 to win $1.00) are fair for a fighter with Bukauskas’s advantages. WT6’s 52.9% for Krylov doesn’t account for the severity of his durability issues. This isn’t about statistical edges - it’s about pattern recognition. Fighters with 4.9th percentile durability don’t suddenly become durable at age 37 with 20 UFC fights of mileage.

---

TOP BET #2: Michael Johnson (+125) vs Alexander Hernandez

Lightweight • Preliminary Card

Why This is a Strong Value Bet

WT6 gives Michael Johnson 50.8% win probability as a +125 underdog, creating a massive +14.4% expected value. This is essentially a pick’em fight where you’re getting paid like an underdog.

The legacy models show interesting support: WT5 and Plain both rate Johnson at the 1st percentile (strong support), while the Profit model shows him at 9th percentile. This represents model consensus that Johnson is undervalued by the betting market.

Radar Analysis: Experience vs Youth

The radar chart reveals a relatively balanced matchup with subtle advantages:

Michael Johnson’s Strengths (Red):

• Experience (98.2nd percentile): 30 UFC fights vs Hernandez’s 17 - massive edge
• Grappling Defense (83.0th percentile): Strong takedown defense
• Striking Offense (72.3rd percentile): Proven power and activity

Alexander Hernandez’s Strengths (Blue):

• Finishing Threat (85.2nd percentile): Significant edge over Johnson (69.9th percentile)
• Physical Edge (83.4th percentile): Size and athleticism advantage
• Grappling Offense (40.6th percentile): Modest edge over Johnson (28.1st percentile)

The Critical Matchup Dynamic:

This is a classic veteran-vs-prospect matchup. Johnson brings 30 UFC fights of experience (98.2nd percentile) against Hernandez’s 17 fights. At lightweight, where speed and timing are crucial, Johnson’s experience reading opponents and avoiding danger could be decisive.

Hernandez holds advantages in finishing threat (85.2nd vs 69.9th percentile) and physical attributes (83.4th vs 59.6th percentile), but Johnson’s superior grappling defense (83.0th vs 78.2nd percentile) should keep the fight standing where his striking experience shines.

Both fighters show nearly identical durability & cardio profiles (Johnson 49.4th, Hernandez 46.9th percentile), suggesting this could go the full 15 minutes. In a decision scenario, Johnson’s experience and higher striking offense (72.3rd vs 73.3rd percentile - essentially even) give him the edge.

Detailed Analysis

Michael Johnson’s Path to Victory:

Johnson at 30 UFC fights has seen everything. He’s faced former champions (Khabib, Tony Ferguson), elite strikers (Gaethje, Poirier), and rising prospects. That experience manifests in subtle defensive adjustments and timing that younger fighters haven’t developed.

The legacy WT5 model (1st percentile) and Plain model (1st percentile) both strongly support Johnson, suggesting his statistical profile and recent form favor him despite the underdog odds. With +125 odds, you’re getting paid handsomely for what WT6 sees as essentially a coin flip.

Johnson’s grappling defense (83.0th percentile) should neutralize Hernandez’s modest grappling offense (40.6th percentile), keeping the fight in striking range where Johnson’s experience and volume (72.3rd percentile striking offense) can accumulate rounds.

Hernandez’s Threats:

Hernandez’s finishing threat (85.2nd percentile) is real - he can end fights suddenly with power strikes or submissions. His physical edge (83.4th percentile) gives him advantages in speed and athleticism that could overwhelm an aging Johnson.

If Hernandez can pressure Johnson and exploit his mediocre durability (49.4th percentile), he has clear paths to a stoppage victory. However, Johnson’s experience at absorbing pressure and fighting defensively when hurt has kept him competitive at the highest levels.

Betting Recommendation: 1-1.5 Units

Bet Michael Johnson at +125 or better. The +14.4% expected value with “moderate” robustness makes this equally strong as the Krylov bet. This is essentially a pick’em fight where you’re getting significant plus-money, and all model systems show some level of support for Johnson.

Risk Factors:

• Johnson’s age and mileage (30 UFC fights with 18 losses)
• Hernandez’s finishing threat (85.2nd percentile) creates knockout danger
• Johnson’s mediocre durability (49.4th percentile) against a power striker

Why I’m Still Betting It: You’re getting +125 on a fight that WT6 rates at 50.8% vs 49.2% - nearly even. Johnson’s experience (98.2nd percentile) and strong grappling defense (83.0th percentile) create a clear path to a decision victory. The legacy models agree, with WT5 and Plain both showing strong support (1st percentile). The market is undervaluing a seasoned veteran against a good-but-not-great prospect.

---

PARLAY OPPORTUNITY: O’Malley (-200) + Michael Johnson (+125)

Combining Elite Striking with Veteran Savvy

Parlay Odds: Approximately +10 (risking $1.00 to win $1.10)

While O’Malley at -200 offers minimal standalone value (+0.2% EV with weak robustness), combining him with Michael Johnson creates an attractive parlay opportunity. Both fighters have clear paths to victory based on skill advantages that models underweight.

Why This Parlay Works

Sean O’Malley’s Case:

• Striking Offense (99.7th percentile): Best in bantamweight, possibly ever
• Four-model consensus: WT6, WT5, Profit, and Plain all favor O’Malley
• Win Probability: 66.8% according to WT6
• Stylistic advantage: O’Malley’s range and precision vs Yadong’s pressure style

Michael Johnson’s Case:

• Experience (98.2nd percentile): 30 UFC fights of wisdom
• Three-model support: WT5, Profit, and Plain favor Johnson
• Win Probability: 50.8% according to WT6 (essentially even money)
• Underdog value: Getting +125 on a pick’em fight

Combined Probability Math

Individual Probabilities:

• O’Malley: 66.8%
• Johnson: 50.8%

Parlay Combined: 66.8% × 50.8% = 33.9% probability

Fair Odds for 33.9%: Should be approximately +195 Actual Parlay Odds: Approximately +10 (decimal 2.10) Implied Probability at +10 odds: 47.6%

Reality Check: This parlay is NOT +EV mathematically based on the combined probabilities. However, it offers a reasonable risk profile for bettors who believe:

1. O’Malley’s skill edge is wider than 66.8% suggests
2. Johnson’s experience creates more value than the tight 50.8% indicates
3. Both fights have clear stylistic advantages that reduce variance

Betting Recommendation: 0.5-1 Unit

Use this parlay for: Bettors who want exposure to the main card (O’Malley) while capturing value on the prelims (Johnson). The parlay structure allows you to bet O’Malley at -200 with upside from Johnson’s underdog odds.

Skip this parlay if: You prefer pure +EV plays. Standalone Michael Johnson at +125 is the better mathematical bet.

Risk Factors:

• O’Malley’s durability (50.0th percentile) vs Yadong’s power (92.6th finishing threat)
• Johnson’s age/mileage (30 UFC fights) creates finish vulnerability
• Parlay requires BOTH fighters to win - no margin for error

Why It’s Still Worth Considering: This is a “responsibly aggressive” parlay - not a long-shot prayer. O’Malley has elite skills with four-model consensus, and Johnson offers legitimate underdog value. Combined, they create a parlay that feels reasonable rather than reckless. At +10 odds, you’re essentially getting a small bonus for combining two solid individual plays.

---

Main Card Analysis

Fight 1: Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett

Lightweight • Main Event

Analysis: Model Agreement, No Betting Value

WT6 gives Pimblett 59.0% win probability, and the legacy models agree - WT5 shows 21st percentile support for Pimblett, and Plain model shows 1st percentile (strong support). However, at -225 odds, the expected value is -14.2%, making this a clear AVOID.

Radar Insights:

The radar chart tells a fascinating story of contrasting styles:

Pimblett’s Advantages (Blue):

• Experience (99.5th percentile): Despite having fewer UFC fights (7 vs 14), Pimblett’s overall career experience is elite
• Physical Edge (86.9th percentile): Significant size advantage over Gaethje (43.1st percentile)
• Grappling Offense (71.7th percentile): Major advantage over Gaethje’s weak 13.2nd percentile
• Durability & Cardio (58.3rd percentile): Edge over Gaethje’s concerning 29.7th percentile

Gaethje’s Advantages (Red):

• Striking Offense (99.3rd percentile): Elite striking offense, among the best in the division
• Finishing Threat (93.9th percentile): Slightly edges Pimblett’s 95.5th percentile
• Grappling Defense (95.5th percentile): Excellent takedown defense

The Fight Dynamic:

Gaethje’s striking offense (99.3rd percentile) is absolutely elite, but his striking defense is catastrophically poor (9.3rd percentile). Pimblett’s striking offense (93.4th percentile) is also excellent, setting up a potential firefight.

The critical factor is Pimblett’s grappling offense (71.7th percentile) vs Gaethje’s grappling defense (95.5th percentile). While Gaethje has excellent takedown defense, his cardio issues when forced to wrestle (29.7th percentile durability) could be exploited by Pimblett’s body lock throws and back-taking game.

Pimblett’s recent victory over Chandler demonstrated his ability to neutralize explosive power punchers with calf kicks and improved wrestling. Gaethje’s recent KO loss to Holloway showed he can be systematically broken down with body work and rhythm changes.

Recommendation: AVOID

While Pimblett should win this fight, -225 odds offer no value. The -14.2% expected value is too significant to overcome. Watch and enjoy the main event, but keep your bankroll for better opportunities.

---

Fight 2: Sean O’Malley vs Song Yadong

Bantamweight • Main Card

Analysis: Marginal Value with Weak Robustness

WT6 gives O’Malley 66.8% win probability with +0.2% expected value at -200 odds. This is technically a positive EV bet, but WT6 rates it as “weak” robustness, meaning the confidence interval is wide.

All three legacy models show strong agreement - WT5 (17th percentile), Profit (16th percentile), and Plain (17th percentile) all support O’Malley, making this one of the strongest consensus picks on the card.

Radar Insights:

O’Malley’s Advantages (Red):

• Striking Offense (99.7th percentile): Absolutely elite, among the best in bantamweight history
• Finishing Threat (95.1st percentile): Significant knockout power
• Striking Defense (76.2nd percentile): Strong defensive striking
• Physical Edge (84.6th percentile): Size and reach advantages

Yadong’s Advantages (Blue):

• Experience (93.5th percentile): Slight edge over O’Malley (87.3rd percentile)
• Finishing Threat (92.6th percentile): Dangerous power in his hands
• Grappling Defense (80.6th percentile): Strong takedown defense
• Durability & Cardio (70.7th percentile): Significant edge over O’Malley (50.0th percentile)

The Fight Dynamic:

O’Malley’s striking offense (99.7th percentile) is the best in the division, with pinpoint accuracy and creative angles. His striking defense (76.2nd percentile) has improved dramatically since his loss to Vera. However, Yadong brings dangerous power (92.6th percentile finishing threat) and superior durability (70.7th vs 50.0th percentile).

Yadong’s path to victory requires him to pressure O’Malley, cut off the cage, and force exchanges where his power can land. O’Malley’s grappling offense is minimal (13.6th percentile), so if Yadong can walk through strikes and get inside, he has opportunities.

Recommendation: MARGINAL

At barely positive EV (+0.2%) with weak robustness, this is a skip for conservative bettors. If you want action on the main card and believe O’Malley’s skill gap is wider than the models suggest, a small bet (0.5 units) is defensible. The four-model consensus (WT6, WT5, Profit, Plain) does provide some additional confidence.

---

Fight 3: Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs Derrick Lewis

Heavyweight • Main Card

Analysis: Overpriced Favorite

WT6 gives Lewis 65.1% win probability, but at -350 odds the expected value is -16.3%. The legacy models show modest support - WT5 rates Lewis at 18th percentile, with Profit and Plain models favoring Cortes-Acosta.

Radar Insights:

Cortes-Acosta’s Advantages (Red):

• Durability & Cardio (94.1st percentile): Massive advantage in heavyweight division
• Physical Edge (92.5th percentile): Size and athleticism
• Striking Offense (94.1st percentile): Excellent output and power
• Striking Defense (74.1st percentile): Significant edge over Lewis (40.0th percentile)
• Grappling Defense (78.4th percentile): Strong wrestling defense

Lewis’s Advantages (Blue):

• Experience (99.7th percentile): 30 UFC fights, highest on the card
• Finishing Threat (88.9th percentile): Legendary knockout power

The Fight Dynamic:

This is a classic heavyweight matchup - young, athletic, well-rounded prospect vs aging veteran with legendary knockout power. Cortes-Acosta dominates the radar chart across almost every category except experience and finishing threat.

Lewis’s striking defense (40.0th percentile) and grappling offense/defense (both around 40th percentile) are concerningly low. Cortes-Acosta should be able to pressure, outstrike, and potentially dominate on the ground.

However, heavyweight is the one division where a single punch changes everything. Lewis’s finishing threat (88.9th percentile) means he’s never truly out of a fight. WT6 gives him 65.1% win probability, likely factoring in his experience (99.7th percentile - 30 UFC fights) and ability to land that one big shot.

Recommendation: AVOID

At -350 odds, you’re risking $3.50 to win $1.00 on a 65% proposition. The -16.3% expected value is far too negative. If you love Lewis’s power, wait for better odds or pass entirely.

---

Fight 4: Natalia Silva vs Rose Namajunas

Women’s Flyweight • Main Card

Analysis: Silva Favored, But Overpriced

WT6 gives Silva 70.8% win probability with strong model consensus. All three legacy models support Silva - WT5 (23rd percentile), Profit (20th percentile), and Plain (10th percentile). However, at -410 odds, the expected value is -12.0%.

Radar Insights:

Silva’s Advantages (Red):

• Experience (97.3rd percentile): Despite fewer UFC fights (7 vs 18), overall experience is elite
• Striking Defense (94.6th percentile): Exceptional defensive striking
• Grappling Defense (92.8th percentile): Elite takedown defense
• Durability & Cardio (91.9th percentile): Excellent conditioning
• Striking Offense (84.7th percentile): Strong offensive striking

Namajunas’s Advantages (Blue):

• UFC Experience: 18 UFC fights vs Silva’s 7, including title fights
• Striking Defense (86.5th percentile): Still elite despite Silva’s edge
• Grappling Offense (58.6th percentile): Significant advantage over Silva (8.1st percentile)
• Finishing Threat (82.9th percentile): Proven finishing ability

The Fight Dynamic:

Silva dominates the radar chart across most categories, particularly in striking defense (94.6th vs 86.5th percentile) and grappling defense (92.8th vs 66.7th percentile). However, Namajunas is moving up from strawweight to flyweight, potentially changing the dynamic.

The critical question is whether Namajunas’s experience advantage (18 UFC fights, two-time champion) can overcome Silva’s technical superiority. Namajunas’s grappling offense (58.6th percentile) vs Silva’s minimal grappling offense (8.1st percentile) suggests Namajunas could find success with wrestling if she can get past Silva’s elite grappling defense (92.8th percentile).

Silva’s durability & cardio (91.9th percentile) is a massive advantage over Namajunas (34.2nd percentile), suggesting Silva can maintain pace and pressure for 15 minutes.

Recommendation: AVOID

Silva should win this fight, and all models agree. But at -410 odds you’re risking $4.10 to win $1.00 on a 71% proposition. The -12.0% expected value makes this a clear pass. Enjoy watching Namajunas’s flyweight debut without your money on the line.

---

Fight 5: Arnold Allen vs Jean Silva

Featherweight • Main Card

Analysis: Jean Silva Slight Favorite

WT6 gives Jean Silva 59.1% win probability, supported by the legacy WT5 model (5th percentile). The Profit and Plain models show some support for Allen (9th and 31st percentiles), creating moderate model disagreement. At -255 odds, the expected value is -17.7%.

Radar Insights:

Allen’s Advantages (Red):

• Experience (92.2nd percentile): 13 UFC fights vs Silva’s 6
• Striking Defense (85.4th percentile): Excellent defensive striking
• Durability & Cardio (84.9th percentile): Strong conditioning
• Grappling Defense (79.7th percentile): Good takedown defense

Jean Silva’s Advantages (Blue):

• Finishing Threat (99.5th percentile): Absolutely elite finishing ability
• Physical Edge (90.0th percentile): Size and athleticism
• Striking Offense (88.4th percentile): High-level striking
• Grappling Defense (87.0th percentile): Excellent takedown defense

The Fight Dynamic:

The radar chart reveals a fascinating contrast - Allen is the more well-rounded, defensively sound fighter across most categories, while Jean Silva dominates in the categories that end fights: finishing threat (99.5th percentile) and striking offense (88.4th percentile).

Silva’s finishing threat is in the 99.5th percentile - meaning he finishes fights at a higher rate than almost anyone in the featherweight division. This explosive finishing ability, combined with elite striking offense (88.4th percentile), makes him perpetually dangerous.

Allen’s durability & cardio (84.9th percentile) is a massive advantage over Silva’s catastrophically low 0.8th percentile. This suggests Silva’s pace is unsustainable, and Allen could systematically break him down in later rounds if he can survive early exchanges.

However, Silva’s physical edge (90.0th percentile) and grappling defense (87.0th percentile) mean Allen can’t simply wrestle his way to safety. This will likely stay standing, where Silva’s finishing threat creates constant danger.

Recommendation: AVOID

WT6 slightly favors Silva (59.1%), but at -255 odds the expected value is -17.7%. This is one of the worst value propositions on the card. If you love Allen’s experience and durability advantage, you could consider him as an underdog at +215, but even that carries significant risk given Silva’s elite finishing threat. Pass on both sides.

---

Preliminary Card Highlights

Fight 6: Umar Nurmagomedov vs Deiveson Figueiredo

Bantamweight • Preliminary Card

Analysis: Prohibitively Expensive Favorite

Umar Nurmagomedov should win this fight. WT6 gives him 75.7% win probability with unanimous model support - WT5 (31st percentile), Profit (22nd percentile), and Plain (19th percentile) all favor the undefeated prospect. The radar chart shows Nurmagomedov dominating nearly every category.

Radar Dominance:

Nurmagomedov’s radar profile (red) is exceptional across the board:

• Physical Edge (93.2nd), Striking Offense (90.4th), Striking Defense (91.4th)
• Grappling Offense (93.8th), Grappling Defense (95.1st)
• Durability & Cardio (88.6th)

Figueiredo’s only advantages are Finishing Threat (92.0th vs 82.1st) and Experience (99.1st percentile with 20 UFC fights). His physical edge is concerningly low (16.0th percentile), likely reflecting the move up from flyweight.

Recommendation: AVOID

At -1500 odds, you must risk $15.00 to win $1.00. The -19.3% expected value is the worst on the entire card. Nurmagomedov should win, but these odds offer zero value. This is a parlay piece at best, and even then the juice kills your return.

---

Fight 7: Ateba Gautier vs Andrey Pulyaev

Middleweight • Preliminary Card

Analysis: Another Overpriced Favorite

Gautier should win with 73.1% probability according to WT6, and all legacy models agree - WT5 (27th), Profit (21st), Plain (29th percentiles). The radar chart shows Gautier with elite finishing threat (100.0th percentile) and grappling defense (98.4th percentile).

Pulyaev’s massive physical edge (99.8th percentile) is his primary advantage, but his low grappling offense (14.2nd percentile) and striking offense (32.9th percentile) suggest he lacks the tools to capitalize on it.

Recommendation: AVOID

At -800 odds ($8.00 to win $1.00), the -17.8% expected value makes this a clear pass.

---

Fight 8: Alex Perez vs Charles Johnson

Flyweight • Preliminary Card

Analysis: Close Fight, Negative EV

WT6 gives Johnson 56.1% win probability at -205 odds, creating -16.7% expected value. The radar chart shows a relatively balanced matchup with interesting contrasts.

Perez holds advantages in grappling offense (80.4th vs 19.6th percentile) and finishing threat (85.6th vs 73.2nd percentile). Johnson counters with superior striking offense (92.8th vs 78.4th percentile) and dramatically better durability & cardio (93.5th vs 2.6th percentile).

The durability gap is alarming - Perez’s 2.6th percentile suggests cardio/durability issues that Johnson’s 93.5th percentile could exploit in later rounds.

Recommendation: AVOID

At -205 odds with -16.7% EV, this is a pass. The fight is closer than the odds suggest, but betting on either side offers negative value.

---

Fight 9: Josh Hokit vs Denzel Freeman

Heavyweight • Preliminary Card

Analysis: Marginal Value, Both UFC Debuts

WT6 gives Hokit 68.6% win probability with tiny +0.4% expected value at -215 odds. The “weak” robustness rating and the fact both fighters have only 1 UFC fight makes this extremely risky.

The legacy models show modest support - WT5 (11th), Profit (14th), and Plain (9th percentiles) all favor Hokit. Note: No radar chart available for this fight due to insufficient UFC data.

Recommendation: MARGINAL

This is technically positive EV (+0.4%) but with “weak” robustness and both fighters being essentially UFC unknowns, this is a skip for anyone but the most aggressive bettors. If you must bet it, keep it to 0.25-0.5 units maximum.

---

Fight 10: Ricky Turcios vs Cameron Smotherman

Bantamweight • Preliminary Card

Analysis: Smotherman Slight Favorite

WT6 gives Smotherman 54.0% win probability at -190 odds, creating -17.4% expected value. The legacy WT5 model strongly supports Smotherman (0 percentile for Turcios), while Profit and Plain models show modest Turcios support (12th and 9th percentiles).

The radar chart shows Smotherman with elite durability & cardio (100.0th percentile) and strong striking defense (77.5th percentile). Turcios counters with better durability & cardio (82.7th vs… wait, how can Smotherman be 100th percentile?).

Smotherman’s physical edge (95.4th percentile) and striking defense (77.5th percentile) are significant advantages. His grappling offense is concerningly low (2.5th percentile), but Turcios’s grappling defense is also weak (37.0th percentile).

Recommendation: AVOID

At -190 odds with -17.4% EV, this is a clear pass. The fight is essentially a coin flip priced as a solid favorite.

---

Key Insights & Patterns

When Models Disagree: Interpretation Guide

Krylov vs Bukauskas presents the most interesting disagreement:

• WT6 favors Krylov (52.9%) with +14.3% EV
• WT5 shows Bukauskas at 0 percentile (strongly favors Bukauskas)
• Profit and Plain models show modest Krylov support (11th percentile)

Why the disagreement? WT6’s deeper feature set captures Krylov’s elite grappling offense (85.7th percentile) and experience advantage (90.9th percentile), while the legacy WT5 model likely overweights Bukauskas’s superior cardio (58.0th vs 4.9th percentile) and more recent activity.

How to interpret: Model disagreements reveal fights where stylistic factors and matchup dynamics diverge from pure statistical profiles. These are often the fights where radar analytics provide the most value - visually identifying which fighter’s strengths match up favorably against their opponent’s weaknesses.

Agreement Signals Confidence

When WT6 and all three legacy models (WT5, Profit, Plain) agree, confidence should increase:

Strong Consensus Picks:

• Umar Nurmagomedov - All four models favor him
• Natalia Silva - All four models favor her
• Ateba Gautier - All four models favor him

However, consensus doesn’t equal betting value. All three of these fighters are overpriced favorites with negative expected value. Market efficiency has correctly identified these winners, pricing them beyond value thresholds.

Weight Class Analysis

Represented Divisions:

• Bantamweight (3 fights): O’Malley, Nurmagomedov, Turcios/Smotherman
• Flyweight (2 fights): Silva, Perez/Johnson
• Featherweight (1 fight): Allen vs Jean Silva
• Lightweight (3 fights): Gaethje, Michael Johnson, plus one more
• Light Heavyweight (1 fight): Krylov vs Bukauskas
• Middleweight (1 fight): Gautier vs Pulyaev
• Heavyweight (2 fights): Lewis, Hokit/Freeman

Weight Class Value: The two betting opportunities (Krylov, M. Johnson) come from Light Heavyweight and Lightweight respectively - divisions where experience and grappling prowess create exploitable advantages that the betting market undervalues.

Experience Advantages Highlighted by Data

Massive Experience Gaps:

• Michael Johnson (30 UFC fights) vs Hernandez (17 fights) - 98.2nd percentile experience
• Derrick Lewis (30 UFC fights) vs Cortes-Acosta (11 fights) - 99.7th percentile experience
• Rose Namajunas (18 UFC fights) vs Silva (7 fights) - though Silva’s overall career experience (97.3rd percentile) is higher
• Deiveson Figueiredo (20 UFC fights) vs Nurmagomedov (8 fights) - 99.1st percentile experience

In three of these four cases, the more experienced fighter is actually the underdog or faces an elite prospect. Michael Johnson’s experience advantage is directly reflected in our betting recommendation - his 98.2nd percentile experience vs Hernandez creates value at +125 odds.

Finishing Threat Patterns

Elite Finishing Threats (95th+ percentile):

• Ateba Gautier (100.0th) - highest on the card
• Jean Silva (99.5th)
• Justin Gaethje (93.9th)
• Paddy Pimblett (95.5th)

Three of these four fighters are favorites, suggesting the market correctly values finishing ability. However, Jean Silva at 99.5th percentile finishing threat creates interesting dynamics - his fights tend to end early, making his catastrophically poor durability & cardio (0.8th percentile) less relevant.

---

Final Recommendations

✅ BET (Strong Confidence Plays)

1. Modestas Bukauskas (-137) vs Nikita Krylov

• Why We’re Betting: Krylov’s catastrophic durability (4.9th percentile) and 8 UFC finishes against him
• Recommended Stake: 1.5-2 units
• Key Edge: Durability mismatch (58.0th vs 4.9th percentile) + strong grappling defense (82.9th percentile) neutralizes Krylov’s submissions
• Legacy Support: WT5 shows Krylov at 0th percentile (strongly favors Bukauskas)
• Risk: Krylov’s elite grappling offense (85.7th) could find early submission
• The Human Edge: Pattern recognition - fighters with 4.9th percentile durability and 8 UFC finishes don’t magically become durable at age 37

2. Michael Johnson (+125) vs Alexander Hernandez

• Expected Value: +14.4%
• Robustness: Moderate
• Recommended Stake: 1-1.5 units
• Key Edge: Experience (98.2nd percentile - 30 UFC fights) + strong grappling defense (83.0th percentile)
• Legacy Support: WT5 and Plain both show 1st percentile (strong support)
• Risk: Age/mileage concerns + Hernandez’s finishing threat (85.2nd percentile)

🎯 PARLAY OPPORTUNITY

O’Malley (-200) + Michael Johnson (+125)

• Combined Odds: Approximately +10 (decimal 2.10)
• Recommended Stake: 0.5-1 unit
• Why This Works: Combines O’Malley’s elite striking (99.7th percentile) with four-model consensus + Johnson’s underdog value and experience
• Use Case: Want main card exposure (O’Malley) while capturing prelim value (Johnson)
• Risk: Requires both fighters to win - no margin for error
• Reality Check: Not pure +EV mathematically, but reasonable for bettors believing in skill edges

⚠️ MARGINAL (Weak Positive EV - Proceed with Extreme Caution)

Josh Hokit (-215) vs Denzel Freeman

• Expected Value: +0.4%
• Robustness: Weak
• Recommended Stake: 0.25-0.5 units maximum (or skip entirely)
• Key Edge: Three legacy models show modest support
• Risk: Both fighters essentially UFC unknowns (1 fight each), no radar data available

❌ AVOID (Negative Expected Value)

Overpriced Favorites:

1. Umar Nurmagomedov (-1500) - EV: -19.3% | Risk $15 to win $1 on 75.7% probability
2. Ateba Gautier (-800) - EV: -17.8% | Elite finishing threat but prohibitive odds
3. Jean Silva (-255) - EV: -17.7% | 99.5th percentile finishing threat priced too high
4. Cameron Smotherman (-190) - EV: -17.4% | Essentially a coin flip (54%) priced as solid favorite
5. Charles Johnson (-205) - EV: -16.7% | Close fight (56.1%) with negative value
6. Derrick Lewis (-350) - EV: -16.3% | Legendary power but aging and overpriced
7. Paddy Pimblett (-225) - EV: -14.2% | Main event favorite, should win but no value
8. Natalia Silva (-410) - EV: -12.0% | Strong favorite but odds too steep

Overpriced Underdog (Fading the Model):

• Nikita Krylov (+117) - Despite WT6 favoring him, his 4.9th percentile durability and history of being finished 8 times makes him a fade. Bet Bukauskas instead.

Other Underdogs:

• None recommended - all show negative EV or insufficient data

---

Conclusion

UFC 324 presents a challenging betting landscape where the market has efficiently priced most favorites. However, our comprehensive analysis reveals two strong value opportunities in the preliminary card:

The Two Bets:

1. Nikita Krylov (+117) offers +14.3% EV through elite grappling offense and experience advantages
2. Michael Johnson (+125) provides +14.4% EV leveraging 30 UFC fights of experience and strong grappling defense

Both recommendations come with “moderate” robustness, making them solid 1-1.5 unit plays for bettors seeking positive expected value.

The Main Card Paradox:

The main card features bigger names and more attention, but offers zero betting value:

• Pimblett should beat Gaethje, but -225 is overpriced (-14.2% EV)
• O’Malley barely has value against Yadong (+0.2% EV with weak robustness)
• Lewis, Silva, and Jean Silva are all prohibitively expensive favorites

Enjoy the Fights:

Sometimes the best bet is no bet. While Gaethje vs Pimblett should be an exciting main event, and O’Malley vs Yadong promises fireworks, your bankroll is better deployed on Krylov and M. Johnson where mathematical edges exist.

The Radar Revelation:

The 8-category radar charts reveal stylistic mismatches that raw statistics miss. Krylov’s elite grappling offense (85.7th percentile) vs Bukauskas’s good-but-not-great grappling defense (82.9th percentile) creates a clear path to victory that justifies the +117 odds. Michael Johnson’s experience (98.2nd percentile) and grappling defense (83.0th percentile) similarly provide quantifiable edges.

Responsible Betting Reminder:

• Never bet more than you can afford to lose
• Expected value is a long-term concept requiring many bets to realize
• Individual fights remain unpredictable regardless of model confidence
• Use proper bankroll management (1-2% per bet for standard sizing)
• Track your bets to measure performance over time

Good luck, bet responsibly, and enjoy UFC 324!

---

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Sports betting involves risk and may not be legal in your jurisdiction. Always gamble responsibly and within your means. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. The author and WolfTickets.AI are not responsible for any betting losses incurred based on this analysis.