UFC November 1, 2025: Legacy Models Converge on Dumont and Alencar Parlay
Table of Contents
- TL;DR
- Model Predictions Summary
- Main Card
- Preliminary Card
- PARLAY LEG #1: Norma Dumont vs Ketlen Vieira
- Preliminary Card • Women’s Bantamweight
- Exceptional Legacy EV With Model Conflict
- Radar Chart Analysis
- The Fight
- The Bet
- PARLAY LEG #2: Talita Alencar vs Ariane Carnelossi
- Preliminary Card • Women’s Strawweight
- Strong Legacy Consensus Overrides WT6
- Radar Chart Analysis
- The Fight
- The Bet
- Other Fights Overview
- Steve Garcia vs David Onama
- Jeremiah Wells vs Themba Gorimbo
- Allan Nascimento vs Rafael Estevam
- Timmy Cuamba vs ChangHo Lee
- Key Insights
- Data Quality Filtering
- Legacy Model Consensus
- The Model Conflict Question
- Final Recommendation
- What’s Next
TL;DR
After filtering for data quality and removing fighters with limited fight history (1-2 fights of data), two plays emerge with strong model consensus:
The Parlay: Norma Dumont (-166) + Talita Alencar (-245)
Norma Dumont vs Ketlen Vieira
- WT5 Legacy EV: +13.8 (exceptional)
- Strong consensus: WT5=16, Plain=13
- WT6 shows model conflict (-17.1% EV) but legacy models strongly favor Dumont
- Both fighters have extensive data (10+ fights)
Talita Alencar vs Ariane Carnelossi
- WT5 Legacy EV: +8.2 (strong)
- Strong consensus: WT5=22, Profit=18, Plain=23
- WT6 shows negative EV (-5.7%) but legacy models converge
- Alencar’s grappling dominance (82.8 vs 55.2) creates clear path
Combined odds: 1.88x payout ($10 returns $18.80)
Card Overview:
- 12 fights total, focused on quality data (excluded fighters with fewer than 3 fights)
- Legacy models show strong conviction on both parlay legs
- WT6 model disagreement noted but legacy consensus overrides
Model Predictions Summary
Below is a complete breakdown of all predictions from both our WT6 (current ML) and legacy WolfTickets models. The table shows win probabilities, expected value, odds, and recommendations.
Model Key:
- WT6 ML: Current generation machine learning model (AutoGluon ensemble with enhanced features)
- WT6 EV: Expected value from WT6 model (percentage)
- WT5: WolfTickets legacy model confidence percentile
- Profit: Profit Model confidence percentile
- Plain: Plain Model confidence percentile
- Legacy EV: Expected value calculated by legacy WT5 system (shown as flat number, e.g., 10.7)
- # of Fights: Total UFC fights for each fighter
Main Card
| Fighter | WT6 ML | WT6 EV | WT5 | Profit | Plain | Legacy EV | # of Fights | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Garcia | 64.3% | +11.0% | 6 | 13 | 16 | 4.2 | 9 | -138 |
| David Onama | 35.7% | 8 | +108 | |||||
| Waldo Cortes-Acosta | 57.0% | +10.1% | 6 | 15 | 10.7 | 9 | -106 | |
| Ante Delija | 43.0% | 5 | 1 | -120 | ||||
| Jeremiah Wells | 52.6% | +13.8% | 6 | 4 | 6 | +118 | ||
| Themba Gorimbo | 47.4% | 1 | -4.3 | 6 | -150 | |||
| Isaac Dulgarian | 67.9% | -4.4% | 13 | 17 | 2.7 | 3 | -250 | |
| Yadier del Valle | 32.1% | 6 | 1 | +190 | ||||
| Charles Radtke | 65.2% | +6.7% | 3 | 9 | 9 | -6.1 | 5 | -158 |
| Daniel Frunza | 34.8% | 1 | +124 | |||||
| Allan Nascimento | 60.1% | +7.1% | 3 | 15 | 10 | -1.0 | 4 | -128 |
| Rafael Estevam | 39.9% | 3 | +100 |
Preliminary Card
| Fighter | WT6 ML | WT6 EV | WT5 | Profit | Plain | Legacy EV | # of Fights | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timmy Cuamba | 60.3% | +11.5% | 7 | 11 | 10.0 | 3 | -118 | |
| ChangHo Lee | 39.7% | 1 | 2 | -108 | ||||
| Ketlen Vieira | 48.0% | 3 | 13 | +130 | ||||
| Norma Dumont | 52.0% | -17.1% | 16 | 13 | 13.8 | 10 | -166 | |
| Alice Ardelean | 70.6% | -11.8% | 27 | 20 | 20 | -0.8 | 3 | -400 |
| Montserrat Conejo Ruiz | 29.4% | 4 | +285 | |||||
| Phil Rowe | 45.3% | 2 | 7 | +154 | ||||
| Seokhyeon Ko | 54.7% | -18.1% | 14 | 6 | 8.5 | 1 | -200 | |
| Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady | 57.6% | +5.9% | 15 | 13 | 10 | 20.6 | 1 | -120 |
| Matheus Camilo | 42.4% | 1 | -106 | |||||
| Talita Alencar | 67.2% | -5.7% | 22 | 18 | 23 | 8.2 | 3 | -245 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 32.8% | 5 | +186 |
Key Insights:
- Norma Dumont shows exceptional WT5 Legacy EV (+13.8) with strong consensus (WT5=16, Plain=13)
- Talita Alencar shows strong WT5 Legacy EV (+8.2) with triple consensus (WT5=22, Profit=18, Plain=23)
- Parlay opportunity: Both fighters have 10+ and 3+ fights of reliable data
- Fighters excluded: Al-Selwady, Camilo, Del Valle, Frunza, Ko (all have 1-2 fights of data)
- Legacy vs WT6 conflict: Both parlay legs show negative WT6 EV but strong legacy consensus
PARLAY LEG #1: Norma Dumont vs Ketlen Vieira
Preliminary Card • Women’s Bantamweight
Exceptional Legacy EV With Model Conflict
Dumont shows +13.8 WT5 Legacy EV - the highest among fighters with reliable data (10+ fights). Strong consensus from legacy models (WT5=16, Plain=13) suggests historical betting patterns strongly favor Dumont.
WT6 shows severely negative EV (-17.1%), creating a classic model disagreement case. However, both fighters have extensive fight data (Dumont 10 fights, Vieira 13 fights), eliminating data quality concerns. This is a true model philosophy difference, not a sample size issue.
When legacy models show this level of consensus (WT5=16, Plain=13) on fighters with 10+ fights each, historical accuracy has been strong. The -166 odds create value according to legacy projections despite WT6’s contrary assessment.
Radar Chart Analysis
Close matchup with key differentiators:
Vieira’s Advantages:
- Grappling Defense (94.8): Elite takedown defense - 90% TDD
- Experience (88.7): 13 fights vs 10, more octagon time
- Durability & Cardio (78.4): Better conditioning for 3 rounds
- Physical Edge (80.4): Size advantages
Dumont’s Advantages:
- Experience (97.9): 5-fight win streak, superior form
- Striking Defense (92.8): Excellent defensive striking - 65.5% defense
- Striking Offense (72.2): More offensive output
- Grappling Defense (80.4): Strong 72% TDD
Key Technical Points: Both fighters show low finishing threat (Vieira 42.3, Dumont 40.2), meaning this fight almost certainly goes to decision. Dumont’s 5-fight win streak and superior striking defense (92.8 vs 58.8) create edges in a decision fight. Vieira’s grappling defense is elite, but Dumont’s wrestling is adequate (64.9 grappling offense) to compete.
The Fight
Dumont is riding a 5-fight win streak with excellent striking defense (65.5%). Vieira has lost 2 of her last 3. In decision fights (which this will be), Dumont’s current form and striking advantages accumulate over 15 minutes.
Vieira’s elite grappling defense (94.8) keeps the fight standing where Dumont wants it. Dumont’s striking offense (72.2) and defense (92.8) create systematic advantages in the standup battle.
The Bet
BET Dumont (-166) as Parlay Leg #1.
The +13.8 WT5 Legacy EV is exceptional for fighters with extensive data. Strong consensus (WT5=16, Plain=13) overrides WT6’s negative assessment. Both fighters have 10+ fights, eliminating data quality concerns.
This is a pure legacy model play where historical betting patterns see clear value that modern ML misses.
Risk Factors:
- WT6 severely negative (-17.1% EV) - model disagreement
- Vieira’s grappling defense (94.8) is elite
- Close radar metrics suggest competitive fight
- Decision fight (low finishing threat) increases variance
PARLAY LEG #2: Talita Alencar vs Ariane Carnelossi
Preliminary Card • Women’s Strawweight
Strong Legacy Consensus Overrides WT6
Alencar shows +8.2 WT5 Legacy EV with exceptional triple consensus (WT5=22, Profit=18, Plain=23). When all three legacy models converge at these percentiles, historical accuracy is strong.
WT6 shows negative EV (-5.7%), but the legacy consensus is too strong to ignore. Alencar has 3 fights of data (minimum threshold), Carnelossi has 5 fights. Both have sufficient data for reliable predictions, unlike many fighters on this card.
The -245 odds appear steep, but legacy models suggest Alencar’s grappling dominance creates a larger skill gap than the market recognizes.
Radar Chart Analysis
Alencar holds systematic grappling advantages:
Alencar’s Advantages:
- Durability & Cardio (100.0): Perfect conditioning - won’t fade
- Grappling Defense (98.3): Elite 100% TDD, submission defense
- Grappling Offense (82.8): Strong wrestling and control
- Striking Defense (81.0): Solid defensive fundamentals
Carnelossi’s Advantages:
- Finishing Threat (94.0): Dangerous finisher - 60% finish rate
- Physical Edge (50.9 vs 0.9): Significant size advantages
- Striking Offense (25.0 vs 9.5): More offensive output (both low)
Key Technical Points: Alencar’s grappling profile (82.8 offense, 98.3 defense) creates a massive mismatch against Carnelossi’s poor grappling defense (10.3 percentile). Carnelossi’s finishing threat (94.0) is real, but she needs to land clean strikes. Alencar’s durability (100.0) and striking defense (81.0) make finishing her extremely difficult.
The Fight
Alencar is a BJJ world champion with elite grappling. Her 98.3 grappling defense (100% TDD) means Carnelossi won’t take her down. Her 82.8 grappling offense vs Carnelossi’s 10.3 grappling defense creates a clear path to control and decision victory.
Carnelossi’s only path is knockout. Her 94.0 finishing threat (60% finish rate, 3 finishes in 5 UFC fights) is legitimate. But against Alencar’s 81.0 striking defense and 100.0 durability, landing a finish is extremely difficult.
Alencar’s 100.0 durability percentile means she won’t fade in Round 3. Carnelossi’s 12.1 durability creates a massive gap. If this fight goes deep, Alencar dominates.
The Bet
BET Alencar (-245) as Parlay Leg #2.
The +8.2 WT5 Legacy EV with triple consensus (WT5=22, Profit=18, Plain=23) is exceptional. Both fighters have adequate data (3+ fights), eliminating sample size concerns.
Alencar’s grappling dominance (82.8 vs 10.3 defense) creates a clear technical path to victory. Legacy models see a larger skill gap than -245 odds reflect.
Risk Factors:
- WT6 negative (-5.7% EV) - model disagreement
- Carnelossi’s finishing threat (94.0) is dangerous
- Alencar only has 3 fights of data (minimum threshold)
- If Carnelossi lands clean early, upset potential exists
Other Fights Overview
Quick recaps of remaining fights with radar chart analysis:
Steve Garcia vs David Onama
Main Card • Featherweight
Garcia (9 fights) shows elite finishing threat (98.9) and striking defense (88.8), but terrible cardio (29.5). Onama (8 fights) has exceptional striking offense (96.2) and durability (87.2). Garcia needs an early finish; if Onama survives to Round 3, his cardio advantage dominates. Both models show positive EV (WT6 +11.0%, WT5 +4.2) with Profit Model support (13).
Jeremiah Wells vs Themba Gorimbo
Main Card • Welterweight
Wells (6 fights) vs Gorimbo (6 fights) features elite grappling on both sides (96.8 vs 98.1). Wells has massive finishing threat advantage (92.5 vs 59.1) but poor physical profile (40.5) at age 39. Gorimbo holds physical edge (93.8) and striking advantages. Both show terrible cardio (21.0 vs 23.3). WT6 favors Wells (+13.8% EV, 52.6% win probability) despite underdog odds (+118), but legacy models slightly favor Gorimbo.
Allan Nascimento vs Rafael Estevam
Main Card • Flyweight
Nascimento (4 fights) vs Estevam (3 fights). Estevam dominates radar metrics: exceptional durability (99.3), elite grappling offense (99.3), and physical edge (95.4). Nascimento has elite striking defense (94.8) but catastrophic grappling defense (14.4). WT6 favors Nascimento (+7.1% EV) with strong Profit Model (15), suggesting Nascimento’s striking defense keeps fights standing where his grappling weakness is neutralized.
Timmy Cuamba vs ChangHo Lee
Preliminary Card • Bantamweight
Cuamba (3 fights) vs Lee (2 fights - limited data). Cuamba shows exceptional durability/cardio (89.8) vs Lee’s poor conditioning (54.5). Lee has catastrophic striking defense (17.3) despite elite finishing threat (96.6). Dual positive EV (WT6 +11.5%, WT5 +10.0) with Profit Model support (11). Lee’s limited data (2 fights) creates statistical uncertainty.
Key Insights
Data Quality Filtering
After reviewing all model predictions and filtering for data quality, fighters with 1-2 fights of data were excluded: Al-Selwady, Camilo, Del Valle, Frunza, Ko (all have limited fight history creating unreliable statistical profiles).
Legacy Model Consensus
Both Dumont and Alencar show strong legacy model consensus:
- Dumont: WT5=16, Plain=13 (exceptional consensus), +13.8 WT5 EV
- Alencar: WT5=22, Profit=18, Plain=23 (triple consensus), +8.2 WT5 EV
Despite WT6 showing negative EV on both (-17.1% and -5.7%), the legacy model agreement is too strong to ignore when both fighters have reliable data (10+ and 3+ fights respectively).
The Model Conflict Question
When WT6 and legacy models disagree, it creates uncertainty. However, both parlay fighters have sufficient data to trust predictions:
- Dumont (10 fights) vs Vieira (13 fights) - both extensive records
- Alencar (3 fights) vs Carnelossi (5 fights) - both above minimum threshold
The legacy consensus on fights with adequate data historically shows strong accuracy.
Final Recommendation
PARLAY: Norma Dumont (-166) + Talita Alencar (-245)
- Combined odds: 1.88x payout ($10 returns $18.80)
- Unit sizing: 1 unit
- Both legs show strong legacy model consensus
- Both matchups feature fighters with reliable data samples
- WT6 disagreement noted but legacy consensus overrides
Risk Factors:
- WT6 shows negative EV on both legs (model conflict)
- Dumont fight likely goes to decision (low finishing threat)
- Carnelossi has dangerous finishing threat (94.0)
- Parlay requires both legs to hit
What’s Next
This Fight Night card required careful data quality filtering. After excluding fighters with 1-2 fights of data, the legacy models showed strong conviction on Dumont and Alencar despite WT6 disagreement.
Good luck!
