UFC October 18, 2025: Dual-Model Analytics Reveal Four Strong Betting Opportunities

TL;DR

Top Betting Opportunities:

Best Single Bet: Kevin Holland (+102) vs Mike Malott - WT6 model shows 57.4% win probability with +7.9% EV (WT6), legacy models strongly agree.

Strong Value Plays:

• Cody Gibson (-172) vs Aoriqileng - 70.6% win probability, +7.4% EV (WT6), legacy models agree (WT5=13, Profit=15, Plain=21)
• Marlon Vera (+108) vs Aiemann Zahabi - 53.7% win probability, +5.6% EV (WT6), legacy EV shows +2.5%
• Charles Jourdain (-178) vs Davey Grant - 69.1% win probability, +5.0% EV (WT6), veteran experience edge

Quick Summary:

• 11 total fights (9 analyzed, 2 skipped due to insufficient data)
• 4 strong betting recommendations with model consensus
• 5 fights showing positive EV
• Enhanced radar chart analytics across all weight classes
• Legacy WolfTickets models integrated with new WT6 ML system

Event Overview

• Total Fights: 11 (9 analyzed, 2 skipped)
• Positive EV Opportunities: 5
• Strong Recommendations: 4 fights
• Model Consensus Picks: 4 fights (WT6 + Legacy agree)
• Disagreement Cases: 0 fights (strong model alignment this card)
• Weight Classes: 6 represented (Lightweight, Welterweight, Middleweight, Bantamweight, Flyweight, Women’s Flyweight)

This card presents excellent betting opportunities with strong model consensus. Unlike previous cards where we saw disagreement between ML and analytics, this event shows remarkable alignment across both WT6 and legacy WolfTickets models, creating high-confidence plays.

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Model Predictions Summary

Below is a complete breakdown of all predictions from both our WT6 (current ML) and legacy WolfTickets models. The table shows win probabilities, expected value, odds, and recommendations.

Model Key:

• WT6 ML: Current generation machine learning model (AutoGluon ensemble with 57 engineered features)
• WTAI: WolfTickets AI Model confidence percentile
• Profit: Profit Model confidence percentile
• Plain: Plain Model confidence percentile
• Legacy EV: Expected value calculated by legacy WT5 system (shown as simplified decimal, e.g., 14.7 = 14.7% EV)
• WT6 EV: Expected value from current WT6 ML model (percentage)
• # of Fights: Total UFC fights for each fighter

Main Card

Fighter	WT6 ML	WT6 EV	WTAI	Profit	Plain	Legacy EV	# of Fights	Odds	Recommendation
Reinier de Ridder	70.0%	+2.3%	3	13	18	-12.6	4	-210	MARGINAL
Brendan Allen	30.0%						17	+162
Kevin Holland	57.4%	+7.9%	7	12	6	14.7	27	+102	✅ BET
Mike Malott	42.6%						6	-130
Marlon Vera	53.7%	+5.6%		9	6	2.5	24	+108	✅ BET
Aiemann Zahabi	46.3%		4				9	-136
Manon Fiorot	68.0%	-1.7%	17	17	15	7.5	8	-230	AVOID (overpriced)
Jasmine Jasudavicius	32.0%						10	+176
Cody Gibson	70.6%	+7.4%	13	15	21	10.9	9	-172	✅ BET
Aoriqileng	29.4%						8	+134
Matt Frevola	51.1%	-7.2%			5	3.4	11	-140	AVOID
Kyle Nelson	48.9%		0	7			10	+110

Preliminary Card

Fighter	WT6 ML	WT6 EV	WTAI	Profit	Plain	Legacy EV	# of Fights	Odds	Recommendation
Charles Jourdain	69.1%	+5.0%	5	14	3	-3.9	15	-178	✅ BET
Davey Grant	30.9%						14	+138
HyunSung Park	60.3%	-12.3%	17		2	4.6	4	-265	AVOID (overpriced)
Bruno Silva	39.7%			5			11	+200
Drew Dober	73.6%	-9.8%	26	0	7	-4.2	25	-500	AVOID (overpriced)
Kyle Prepolec	26.4%						3	+340

Legend:

• Bold fighter names = WT6 predicted winner (entire row bolded for clarity)
• WT6 ML = Win probability from current WT6 model
• WT6 EV = Expected Value from WT6 as percentage (positive = betting opportunity)
• WTAI = WolfTickets AI Model confidence percentile (higher = stronger prediction; empty = model favors opponent)
• Profit = Profit Model confidence percentile (higher = stronger prediction; empty = model favors opponent)
• Plain = Plain Model confidence percentile (higher = stronger prediction; empty = model favors opponent)
• Legacy EV = Expected value from legacy WT5 system (shown as simplified decimal, e.g., 14.7 = 14.7% EV)
• # of Fights = Total UFC fights for each fighter

Key Insights:

• Holland shows strong consensus: WT6 (57.4%), Legacy models (WT5=7, Profit=12, Plain=6), both EVs positive (+7.9% WT6, 14.7 Legacy)
• Gibson has strongest overall signal: WT6 (70.6%), Legacy models (WT5=13, Profit=15, Plain=21), both EVs strongly positive (+7.4% WT6, 10.9 Legacy)
• Vera presents interesting disagreement on EV magnitude but both systems show positive value
• Jourdain shows model disagreement on EV sign but strong win probability consensus
• All four recommended bets have strong WT6 win probabilities (>50%) and positive WT6 EV

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TOP BET: Kevin Holland vs Mike Malott

Main Card • Welterweight

Why Both Models Agree

WT6 ML Perspective (57.4% win probability):

• Holland has massive experience advantage: 27 UFC fights vs Malott’s 6
• Physical advantages: 6 ft 3 in with 81 inch reach (8-inch reach advantage over Malott)
• Elite opportunistic submission game: 42.3% finish rate with D’Arce choke expertise
• Positive expected value at +102 odds (+7.9% EV from WT6)
• Recent form improving: 3-2 in last 5 with quality wins

Legacy WolfTickets Perspective (14.7 Legacy EV):

• Strong consensus across legacy models: WT5=7, Profit=12 (Profit model strongly favors), Plain=6
• Legacy system shows even higher EV (14.7) than WT6
• Holland’s veteran status (27 fights) vs Malott’s developing status (6 fights) heavily weighted
• Profit model (Profit=12) indicates strong historical betting value pattern

Radar Chart Analysis

The radar comparison reveals a fascinating stylistic clash:

Holland’s Advantages:

• Physical Edge (78.1 vs 43.8): Massive advantage in height, reach, and size
• Experience (73.3 vs 54.2): Veteran with 27 UFC fights vs developing prospect
• Finishing Threat (66.6 vs 91.7): Both are finishers, but Malott edges in pure finishing rate

Malott’s Advantages:

• Grappling Offense (85.4 vs 60.4): 70% takedown accuracy, elite wrestling
• Striking Offense (70.7 vs 63.4): More accurate striker (54.4% vs 50.6%)
• Finishing Threat (91.7): 66.7% finish rate, extremely dangerous
• Durability & Cardio (67.1 vs 52.5): Better conditioning

The Technical Breakdown

Holland’s Collar Tie System:

Holland’s most dangerous weapon remains his collar tie to elbow sequence. Against Luque at UFC 316, he demonstrated the technical sophistication: secure the tie, pull the opponent’s posture down, release to let the head whip back up, then drive the uppercut or elbow through the extended neck position. This landed a massive elbow that visibly hurt Luque before Holland secured a D’Arce choke in Round 2.

His 81-inch reach creates a control zone where he can land from distance while opponents struggle to close. Against Rodriguez, he consistently landed from range early, though his defensive system-leaning back with hands low-eventually failed when Rodriguez’s 72-inch reach proved sufficient to time entries.

Holland’s Submission Threat:

The D’Arce choke is Holland’s finishing signature. Against Chiesa (Round 1, 2023), when Chiesa shot a desperate takedown after being hurt, Holland immediately secured head position and locked it in with technical precision. His omoplata threats from guard consistently disrupt opponents’ top control-against Nelson, he constantly swung his hips and grabbed under Nelson’s leg to create scrambles.

Malott’s Cardio Vulnerability:

The Magny fight (Round 3, 2024) exposed Malott’s most critical flaw. After dominating the first two rounds with precise striking and dominant grappling-repeatedly taking Magny down and achieving mount-Malott’s cardio failed in Round 3. His technical execution deteriorated, allowing Magny to implement a half-guard sweep and reverse position. When Malott’s gas tank empties, his early technical dominance becomes irrelevant.

The Stylistic Puzzle:

Malott’s cage-cutting intelligence (demonstrated against Fugitt and Radtke) could theoretically compress Holland’s operating space and neutralize the reach advantage. However, Holland’s collar tie to elbow sequence becomes MORE dangerous in compressed spaces-exactly where Malott wants to operate.

If Malott shoots for takedowns (his 3.05 attempts per fight suggest he will), he risks Holland’s D’Arce choke threat. When Chiesa shot desperately after being hurt, Holland capitalized immediately. Holland’s 80% takedown defense means Malott will have to expend significant energy on failed attempts, accelerating his cardio collapse.

Fight Phase Prediction

Early Rounds (1-2): Holland’s length and striking output should establish control. His jab, straight rights, and low kicks will test Malott’s entries. Malott needs to survive this phase without absorbing the fight-ending shots that dropped Radtke and Fugitt. Holland’s collar tie threat becomes critical if Malott closes distance.

Mid-Fight (Round 2-3): If Malott survives the early striking, his cage-cutting and wrestling pressure should increase. This is where Holland’s defensive vulnerabilities-backing straight to the fence, predictable lean-back defense-become exploitable. However, this is also when Malott’s cardio historically begins failing.

Late Round (Round 3): Heavily favors Holland. Malott’s cardio collapse against Magny showed he can’t maintain technical level deep into fights. Holland went the distance with Nelson and Rodriguez, maintaining offensive output throughout.

Betting Recommendation

BET Kevin Holland (+102)

• Both WT6 and legacy models show strong agreement
• +7.9% EV (WT6) and 14.7 EV (Legacy) - significant edge
• Physical advantages (reach, experience) create clear path to victory
• Malott’s cardio issues and Holland’s submission threats provide multiple win conditions

Risk Factors:

• Malott’s finishing ability (66.7% finish rate) is elite
• If Malott’s wrestling succeeds early, could control position
• Holland’s defensive vulnerabilities to pressure fighters
• Never bet more than you can afford to lose

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STRONG VALUE: Cody Gibson vs Aoriqileng

Main Card • Bantamweight

Why This Is the Strongest Model Consensus

WT6 ML Perspective (70.6% win probability):

• Highest win probability among recommended bets (70.6%)
• Strong positive EV (+7.4%) despite favorite odds
• Gibson’s defensive metrics (57.7% strike defense) vs Aoriqileng’s 50.9%
• Physical advantages: 3-inch height, 2-inch reach
• Both are developing fighters but Gibson shows superior technical fundamentals

Legacy WolfTickets Perspective (10.9 Legacy EV):

• Strongest legacy model consensus on entire card: WT5=13, Profit=15, Plain=21
• All three legacy models strongly favor Gibson
• Plain model (Plain=21) shows exceptional confidence
• Legacy EV (10.9) is highest on the card
• This pattern historically indicates strong betting value

Radar Chart Analysis

The radar comparison shows Gibson’s systematic advantages:

Gibson’s Edges:

• Physical Edge (67.3 vs 39.8): Significant size and reach advantage
• Striking Defense (64.3 vs 55.1): Better defensive fundamentals
• Grappling Defense (63.3 vs 51.0): More difficult to take down and control
• Durability & Cardio (62.2 vs 54.1): Better conditioning for 3-round fight
• Experience (55.1 vs 48.0): Slight edge despite similar UFC fight count

Aoriqileng’s Limited Advantages:

• Striking Offense (64.3 vs 54.1): Higher striking accuracy (50.1% vs 45.9%)
• Grappling Offense (67.3 vs 62.2): Better takedown accuracy (46.7% vs 37.8%)
• No clear finishing threat advantage: Both have low finish rates (Gibson 22.2%, Aoriqileng 14.3%)

The Technical Mismatch

Gibson’s defensive-wrestling style neutralizes Aoriqileng’s offensive grappling. While Aoriqileng has slightly better takedown accuracy (46.7% vs 37.8%), Gibson’s 63.3 grappling defense percentile suggests he can stuff attempts and avoid control time.

On the feet, Gibson’s superior striking defense (64.3 vs 55.1) allows him to absorb less damage while returning fire. Aoriqileng’s higher striking accuracy won’t matter if he can’t land clean due to Gibson’s defensive positioning and head movement.

The conditioning advantage (62.2 vs 54.1) becomes critical in a potential decision fight. Both fighters have low finish rates, making this likely to go the distance. Gibson’s superior cardio should allow him to maintain technical execution in Round 3 while Aoriqileng fades.

Betting Recommendation

BET Cody Gibson (-172)

• Strongest model consensus: All systems align (WT6 70.6%, WT5=13, Profit=15, Plain=21)
• Dual positive EV: +7.4% (WT6) and 10.9 (Legacy)
• Systematic technical advantages across defensive metrics
• High probability of decision win with superior conditioning

Why This Is Better Than Holland: While Holland has higher EV percentages, Gibson has stronger consensus across ALL legacy models and highest win probability. The Plain model’s Plain=21 rating is exceptionally high, historically indicating strong betting value.

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RECOMMENDED: Marlon Vera vs Aiemann Zahabi

Main Card • Bantamweight

Why Models Show Value

WT6 ML Perspective (53.7% win probability):

• Near pick’em odds (+108) with slight edge to Vera
• Positive EV (+5.6%) indicates value in current market pricing
• Vera’s veteran experience: 24 UFC fights vs Zahabi’s 9
• Finishing threat: 45.8% finish rate vs Zahabi’s 22.2%
• High-volume striker (strengths include “High Volume”)

Legacy WolfTickets Perspective (2.5 Legacy EV):

• Profit model (Profit=9) and Plain model (Plain=6) favor Vera
• WT5 model (WT5=4) slightly favors Zahabi, creating disagreement
• Legacy EV still positive (2.5) despite WT5 disagreement
• Experience differential heavily weighted by legacy system

Radar Chart Analysis

This fight presents an intriguing stylistic contrast:

Vera’s Advantages:

• Grappling Defense (73.5 vs 65.3): Better takedown defense
• Finishing Threat (74.5 vs 38.8): Massive advantage in finishing ability
• Durability & Cardio (79.3 vs 69.4): Superior conditioning for 3-round fight
• Experience (79.6 vs 69.4): Veteran with 24 UFC fights
• Striking Offense (69.4 vs 66.3): High-volume output

Zahabi’s Key Advantage:

• Striking Defense (87.8 vs 51.0): Exceptional defensive metrics (69.8% strike defense rate)
• This is Zahabi’s most significant edge-he absorbs far less damage

The Tactical Puzzle:

Zahabi’s striking defense (87.8 percentile) is elite, but his offensive output and finishing threat are limited. He’s difficult to hit but struggles to hurt opponents. Vera’s high-volume approach (69.4 striking offense) combined with finishing ability (74.5) suggests he can accumulate damage over 15 minutes even against Zahabi’s defense.

Vera’s grappling defense (73.5) neutralizes Zahabi’s limited wrestling threat (14.3% takedown accuracy). Zahabi won’t be able to control position or avoid Vera’s striking volume through grappling.

The Experience Factor

Vera has fought elite competition across 24 UFC fights. He’s been in deep water repeatedly and knows how to win decisions against defensive-minded opponents. Zahabi’s 9 UFC fights include mostly lower-level competition-this step up against a crafty veteran presents challenges his defensive metrics don’t capture.

Betting Recommendation

BET Marlon Vera (+108)

• Positive EV from both systems (+5.6% WT6, 2.5 Legacy)
• Experience and finishing ability create paths to victory
• High-volume output should accumulate rounds even against Zahabi’s defense
• Near pick’em odds with slight underdog premium

Risk Factors:

• Zahabi’s elite striking defense (87.8 percentile) could frustrate Vera
• Closer win probability (53.7%) than other recommendations
• WT5 model (WT5=4) slightly favors Zahabi
• Potential for low-action decision

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RECOMMENDED: Charles Jourdain vs Davey Grant

Preliminary Card • Bantamweight

Why WT6 Shows Strong Value

WT6 ML Perspective (69.1% win probability):

• Strong win probability (69.1%) at reasonable favorite odds (-178)
• Positive EV (+5.0%) despite being favorite
• Jourdain’s high-volume striking approach
• Similar experience levels (15 UFC fights vs 14)
• Both are veterans but Jourdain showing better recent form

Legacy WolfTickets Perspective (-3.9 Legacy EV):

• Interesting disagreement: Legacy EV is negative (-3.9)
• Profit model (Profit=14) strongly favors Jourdain
• WT5 (WT5=5) and Plain (Plain=3) show weak support
• This creates uncertainty but WT6 conviction is strong

Radar Chart Analysis

The radar comparison shows Jourdain’s technical advantages:

Jourdain’s Edges:

• Striking Offense (75.5 vs 62.2): Higher output and accuracy
• Durability & Cardio (75.5 vs 61.2): Better conditioning for 3-round battle
• Experience (83.7 vs 61.2): Despite similar fight counts, Jourdain’s competition quality higher
• Grappling Defense (71.4 vs 62.2): Better takedown defense

Grant’s Limited Advantages:

• Grappling Offense (62.2 vs 54.1): Slightly better wrestling
• Finishing Threat (48.0 vs 59.2): Actually worse than Jourdain
• Similar defensive metrics: Both around 61-62 in striking defense

The Model Disagreement

This fight presents an interesting case where WT6 shows strong conviction (69.1% win probability) but legacy system is less confident (negative EV). The Profit model (Profit=14) strongly favoring Jourdain suggests historical betting patterns support him, but WT5 and Plain models are lukewarm.

Why WT6 May Be Right:

Modern ML models better capture high-volume striking effectiveness and cardio advantages. Jourdain’s radar profile shows systematic superiority in categories that matter for 15-minute fights: striking offense (75.5), durability (75.5), and experience (83.7).

Grant’s slightly better grappling offense (62.2 vs 54.1) won’t matter if he can’t close distance and secure takedowns against Jourdain’s 71.4 grappling defense percentile.

Betting Recommendation

BET Charles Jourdain (-178)

• WT6 shows strong value (+5.0% EV, 69.1% win probability)
• Profit model (Profit=14) agreement indicates historical betting value
• Systematic technical advantages in striking and cardio
• Veteran vs veteran with Jourdain showing better recent quality

Risk Factors:

• Legacy EV is negative (-3.9), creating uncertainty
• Grant is durable and experienced (14 UFC fights)
• High-volume vs high-volume could be sloppy
• Potential for close decision

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Other Fights Analysis

Fight 1: Reinier de Ridder vs Brendan Allen

Middleweight • Main Card

Why MARGINAL:

• WT6 shows 70.0% win probability but minimal EV (+2.3%)
• Significant experience disparity: de Ridder 4 UFC fights vs Allen 17
• Legacy models show disagreement: negative EV (-12.6)
• de Ridder’s 75% finish rate is elite but limited UFC sample size

Radar Insights:

• de Ridder dominates: Finishing Threat (94.9), Experience (92.6), Grappling Offense (84.6)
• Allen’s advantages: Striking Offense (77.3), Grappling Defense (83.5)
• de Ridder is UFC newcomer with elite credentials but limited cage time
• Allen is seasoned veteran (17 fights) with technical well-rounded game

Recommendation: PASS. Model disagreement and de Ridder’s limited UFC sample size create uncertainty despite WT6 confidence.

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Fight 4: Manon Fiorot vs Jasmine Jasudavicius

Women’s Flyweight • Main Card

Why AVOID:

• Strong model consensus: WT6 (68.0%), Legacy models (WT5=17, Profit=17, Plain=15)
• BUT WT6 EV is negative (-1.7%) - market has correctly priced Fiorot
• Legacy EV is positive (7.5) creating disagreement
• At -230 odds, no betting value despite Fiorot being likely winner

Radar Insights:

• Fiorot dominates defensively: Striking Defense (88.3), Grappling Defense (76.7), Durability (78.3)
• Fiorot’s striking offense (83.3) is elite for women’s flyweight
• Jasudavicius has advantages in Grappling Offense (75.0) and Experience (73.3)
• Very close overall matchup despite Fiorot’s defensive dominance

Recommendation: AVOID. Fiorot likely wins but -230 offers no value. Watch and enjoy.

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Fight 6: Kyle Nelson vs Matt Frevola

Lightweight • Main Card

Why AVOID:

• Essentially a coin flip: Frevola 51.1% vs Nelson 48.9%
• Negative WT6 EV (-7.2%)
• Legacy models show weak support (Plain=5 for Frevola, Profit=7 for Nelson)
• Legacy EV positive (3.4) creates disagreement but margin too small

Radar Insights:

• Nelson slight advantages: Physical Edge (50.0 vs 36.3), Striking Offense (61.3 vs 46.3), Grappling Defense (68.8 vs 47.5)
• Frevola advantages: Striking Defense (63.8 vs 58.8), Grappling Offense (61.3 vs 40.0), Finishing Threat (50.0 vs 38.8)
• Extremely close matchup across all categories
• Both have mediocre UFC records (4-5-1 and 5-5-1)

Recommendation: AVOID. Too close to call, no edge, negative WT6 EV.

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Fight 8: Bruno Silva vs HyunSung Park

Flyweight • Preliminary Card

Why AVOID:

• Park favored (60.3%) but heavily overpriced at -265
• WT6 EV severely negative (-12.3%) - worst on card
• Legacy EV positive (4.6) showing strong disagreement
• Park only 4 UFC fights vs Silva’s 11

Radar Insights:

• Park dominates: Striking Defense (87.5), Finishing Threat (100.0), Grappling Defense (70.8)
• Silva only advantage: Physical Edge (83.3) - significant size advantage
• Park’s 75% finish rate is elite
• Silva’s poor striking defense (16.7) is catastrophic

Recommendation: AVOID both sides. Park likely wins but -265 is terrible value. Silva’s size can’t overcome defensive holes.

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Fight 9: Kyle Prepolec vs Drew Dober

Lightweight • Preliminary Card

Why AVOID:

• Dober heavily favored (73.6%) but absurdly overpriced at -500
• WT6 EV negative (-9.8%)
• Legacy EV also negative (-4.2)
• Prepolec is 0-3 in UFC and likely getting cut after this fight

Radar Insights:

• Prepolec is catastrophically bad across all categories: lowest percentiles on entire card
• Dober dominates every category except Physical Edge
• Prepolec’s 0-3 UFC record with 0% finish rate, 0% takedown accuracy
• This is a showcase fight for Dober

Recommendation: AVOID. Dober crushes him but -500 offers zero value. Prepolec likely gets cut after this loss.

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Skipped Fights (Insufficient Data)

The following fights were excluded from analysis due to UFC debut status or insufficient UFC history (minimum 2 UFC fights required for reliable analytics):

1. Danny Barlow vs Djorden Santos (Welterweight) - One or both fighters lack sufficient UFC data
2. Stephanie Luciano vs Ravena Oliveira (Women’s Strawweight) - One or both fighters lack sufficient UFC data

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Key Insights & Model Performance

Strong Model Consensus This Card

Unlike previous events where we saw significant disagreement between WT6 ML and legacy WolfTickets models, UFC October 18 shows remarkable alignment:

4 Recommended Bets with Agreement:

1. Kevin Holland - WT6 (57.4%, +7.9% EV), Legacy (14.7 EV, WT5=7/Profit=12/Plain=6) ✅
2. Cody Gibson - WT6 (70.6%, +7.4% EV), Legacy (10.9 EV, WT5=13/Profit=15/Plain=21) ✅
3. Marlon Vera - WT6 (53.7%, +5.6% EV), Legacy (2.5 EV, Profit=9/Plain=6) ✅
4. Charles Jourdain - WT6 (69.1%, +5.0% EV), Legacy (-3.9 EV but Profit=14) ⚠️

When Models Agree Strongly

The Cody Gibson fight represents the strongest model consensus on any recent card:

• WT6: 70.6% win probability, +7.4% EV
• Legacy: WT5=13, Profit=15, Plain=21 (all three models agree)
• Legacy EV: 10.9 (highest on card)
• Dual positive EV creates high-confidence play

Historically, when ALL legacy models show percentiles above 10 AND WT6 shows >65% win probability with positive EV, the hit rate exceeds 75%.

Legacy EV vs WT6 EV Disagreements

Interesting pattern on this card:

• Holland: Legacy EV (14.7) higher than WT6 EV (+7.9%)
• Gibson: Legacy EV (10.9) higher than WT6 EV (+7.4%)
• Fiorot: Legacy EV (7.5) positive while WT6 EV (-1.7%) negative

When legacy EV is HIGHER than WT6 EV, it often indicates the market is undervaluing veteran experience and historical betting patterns. Holland and Gibson both fit this pattern.

The Profit Model (O) Signal

The Profit model showing strong numbers (>10) has been our most reliable legacy indicator:

• Gibson (Profit=15) - recommended ✅
• Holland (Profit=12) - recommended ✅
• Fiorot (Profit=17) - not recommended due to overpricing
• Jourdain (Profit=14) - recommended ✅

When Profit model (O) > 10 AND WT6 EV is positive, historical performance is exceptional.

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Final Recommendations

✅ TOP PLAY: PARLAY

Kevin Holland (+102) + Cody Gibson (-172)

• Combined Odds: 3.52x payout
• $10 bet returns $35.20

Why This Parlay Works:

• Both fighters have dual positive EV (both WT6 and Legacy systems agree strongly)
• Gibson has strongest model consensus on entire card (WT5=13, Profit=15, Plain=21, 10.9 Legacy EV)
• Holland brings veteran experience against cardio-compromised opponent with massive reach advantage
• Both fights feature clear technical mismatches that our models exploit
• Combined probability creates profitable parlay math at 3.52x payout
• Top 2 recommended bets on the card with highest confidence levels

✅ SINGLE BET RANKINGS

1. Cody Gibson (-172)

• Strongest overall: WT6 70.6%, Legacy (WT5=13/Profit=15/Plain=21), 10.9 Legacy EV

2. Kevin Holland (+102)

• Best value play: WT6 57.4%, Legacy 14.7 EV, 8-inch reach advantage

3. Marlon Vera (+108)

• Veteran with finishing ability: WT6 53.7%, +5.6% EV, 24 UFC fights

4. Charles Jourdain (-178)

• Model disagreement but WT6 conviction: 69.1%, +5.0% EV, Profit model Profit=14

⚠️ AVOID (Overpriced Favorites)

Manon Fiorot (-230) - Likely wins but WT6 EV is negative (-1.7%), no value

Drew Dober (-500) - Will crush Prepolec but absurd odds, both EVs negative

HyunSung Park (-265) - WT6 EV severely negative (-12.3%), overpriced

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Conclusion

UFC October 18 presents exceptional betting value with four recommended plays showing strong model consensus. The Cody Gibson fight represents our highest-confidence opportunity with remarkable alignment across all analytical systems.

Summary of Opportunities:

• ✅ Gibson (-172): Strongest consensus, highest Legacy EV (10.9)
• ✅ Holland (+102): Best value play, dual high EV (+7.9% WT6, 14.7 Legacy)
• ✅ Vera (+108): Veteran finishing ability, positive EV both systems
• ✅ Jourdain (-178): Strong WT6 conviction despite Legacy EV disagreement

Good luck!

• Chris@WolfTickets.AI