UFC October 25, 2025: AI Analytics Reveal Exceptional Value Plays in Stacked Card

TL;DR

After filtering for data quality - eliminating fights with massive experience gaps (14+ fights vs 2) and fighters with only knockout wins (no durability data) - two plays emerge where WT6 and WT5 models agree:

The Parlay: Ikram Aliskerov (-265) + Ludovit Klein (-146)

Aliskerov shows WT5 Legacy EV of +3.6% with strong dual consensus (WT5=16, Profit=16). Klein shows WT5 Legacy EV of +9.8% with excellent Profit model support (Profit=13). Both fighters have sufficient UFC data to trust the predictions.

Combined odds: 2.36x payout ($10 returns $23.60)

Card Overview:

• 13 fights, 2 parlay recommendations after data quality filtering
• Several fights avoided due to massive experience gaps or insufficient durability data
• WT5 Legacy EV as primary driver

The Data Quality Filter

This card required stricter selection criteria.

Several fights feature massive experience imbalances: Haqparast (15 UFC fights) vs Salkilld (2 UFC fights), Delgado (only knockout wins, no durability data tested). These create prediction noise. The models work best when both fighters have sufficient UFC data - ideally 4+ fights with varied win methods.

After filtering for data quality, two plays emerge where both WT6 and WT5 models agree, and both fighters have the data depth to trust the predictions:

Ikram Aliskerov (4 UFC fights) vs JunYong Park (1 UFC fight) - While Park has limited data, Aliskerov’s WT5 Legacy EV of +3.6% with strong dual consensus (WT5=16, Profit=16) signals value. The market is underpricing Aliskerov despite Park being a UFC newcomer.

Ludovit Klein (11 UFC fights) vs Mateusz Rebecki (4 UFC fights) - Both fighters have adequate UFC data. Klein’s WT5 Legacy EV of +9.8% is exceptional, with strong Profit model support (Profit=13). The experience gap (11 vs 4) is significant but not extreme.

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Model Predictions Summary

Below is a complete breakdown of all predictions from both our WT6 (current ML) and legacy WolfTickets models. The table shows win probabilities, expected value, odds, and recommendations.

Model Key:

• WT6 ML: Current generation machine learning model (AutoGluon ensemble with enhanced features)
• WT5: WolfTickets legacy model confidence percentile
• Profit: Profit Model confidence percentile
• Plain: Plain Model confidence percentile
• Legacy EV: Expected value calculated by legacy WT5 system (shown as simplified decimal, e.g., 7.6 = 7.6% EV)
• WT6 EV: Expected value from current WT6 ML model (percentage)
• # of Fights: Total UFC fights for each fighter

Main Card

Fighter	WT6 ML	WT6 EV	WT5	Profit	Plain	Legacy EV	# of Fights	Odds	Recommendation
Tom Aspinall	70.4%	-14.4%	12	20	4	-9.0	9	-460	AVOID (overpriced)
Ciryl Gane	29.6%						14	+320
Mackenzie Dern	50.7%	-21.3%	0			-13.0	15	-178	AVOID (overpriced)
Virna Jandiroba	49.3%		10	18			13	+138
Umar Nurmagomedov	73.7%	-13.9%	30	20	16	-6.3	6	-590	AVOID (overpriced)
Mario Bautista	26.3%						11	+390
Jailton Almeida	56.8%	-18.3%	9		1	-0.1	8	-225	AVOID
Alexander Volkov	43.2%			1			22	+172
Aleksandar Rakic	55.6%	+8.7%	1	11		4.2	13	-106	AVOID (chin questions)
Azamat Murzakanov	44.4%				6		5	-120

Preliminary Card

Fighter	WT6 ML	WT6 EV	WT5	Profit	Plain	Legacy EV	# of Fights	Odds	Recommendation
Nasrat Haqparast	57.6%	+5.9%	6	13	3	7.6	15	-120	AVOID (15 vs 2 gap)
Quillan Salkilld	42.4%						2	-106
Ikram Aliskerov	66.5%	-8.1%	16	16	3	3.6	4	-265	✅ PARLAY LEG #1
JunYong Park	33.5%						1	+200
Ludovit Klein	61.8%	+3.7%	9	13	6	9.8	11	-146	✅ PARLAY LEG #2
Mateusz Rebecki	38.2%						4	+114
Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady	57.6%	+5.6%	3	10	4	0.6	4	-120	AVOID (no radar data)
Matheus Camilo	42.4%						2	-106
Nathaniel Wood	53.2%	+19.0%		4			10	+124	AVOID (no durability data)
Jose Delgado	46.8%		9		13		6	-160
Hamdy Abdelwahab	69.2%	-13.1%	24	19	8	-0.4	4	-390	AVOID (overpriced)
Chris Barnett	30.8%						10	+280
Azat Maksum	68.0%	-12.3%	25	20	16	1.9	4	-340	AVOID (overpriced)
Mitch Raposo	32.0%						2	+250
Jaqueline Amorim	72.0%	-13.5%	28	20	24	-3.6	4	-480	AVOID (overpriced)
Mizuki	28.0%						5	+330

Key Insights:

• Aliskerov shows all models agreeing on winner with WT5 Legacy EV +3.6%, exceptional dual consensus (WT5=16, Profit=16)
• Klein has exceptional WT5 Legacy EV +9.8% with strong Profit support (Profit=13) and positive WT6 EV +3.7%
• Data quality filtering eliminated: Wood/Delgado (Delgado only has KO wins, no durability data), Haqparast/Salkilld (15 vs 2 fight gap), Rakic/Murzakanov (both coming off brutal KO losses, chin questions)
• WT5 Legacy EV as primary driver: When legacy EV is positive, it signals historical betting pattern value
• Parlay combines both plays for 2.36x payout

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PARLAY LEG #1: Ikram Aliskerov vs JunYong Park

Preliminary Card • Middleweight

All Models Agree on Winner, Legacy EV Drives the Play

All models agree Aliskerov wins - WT6 at 66.5%, WT5 at 16th percentile (strong), Profit at 16th percentile (strong). The difference is EV: Legacy models show +3.6% value while WT6 shows -8.1%.

When all models pick the same winner but Legacy EV is positive, it means historical betting patterns favor Aliskerov more than current odds reflect. The dual consensus (WT5=16, Profit=16) is exceptional - both legacy models strongly agree on winner AND value.

Park has 1 UFC fight. His radar metrics look inflated due to small sample size. Aliskerov has 4 UFC fights with a 3-1 record, including a KO loss to Imavov (a legitimate top-15 middleweight). That loss provides durability data - Aliskerov has been tested.

Radar Chart Analysis

The radar shows Park with better average percentile (68.0 vs 62.7), but context matters:

Aliskerov’s Real Advantages:

• Finishing Threat (100.0): 75% finish rate, elite power
• Grappling Offense (82.5): Sambo background, 100% takedown accuracy
• 4 UFC fights vs Park’s 1 - actual data depth

Park’s Inflated Metrics:

• Durability (87.5), Physical Edge (85.0) based on single fight
• No evidence of how he handles adversity or cardio in later rounds
• Lost his debut by decision

The Fight

Aliskerov has fought Robert Bryczek, Phil Hawes, and Nassourdine Imavov in his last 3 UFC appearances. That’s real competition. Park fought Maheshate in his debut and lost.

Aliskerov’s 75% finish rate comes from actual finishing ability - knockouts and submissions. He has offensive wrestling (sambo champion) and one-punch power. Park’s single UFC fight doesn’t provide enough data to know how he handles elite grappling or power.

At -265, the market prices Aliskerov as a heavy favorite. But the +3.6% Legacy EV says it should be even heavier. The WT5 models (WT5=16, Profit=16) see historical betting value here.

The Bet

Aliskerov (-265) as parlay leg #1.

The negative WT6 EV creates hesitation, but WT5 Legacy EV +3.6% with dual consensus (WT5=16, Profit=16) overrules it. This is a case where historical betting patterns trump modern ML.

Park’s single UFC fight makes his radar metrics unreliable. Aliskerov’s 4 fights provide actual durability and skill data. That data depth makes the difference.

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PARLAY LEG #2: Ludovit Klein vs Mateusz Rebecki

Preliminary Card • Lightweight

Exceptional WT5 Legacy EV

Klein shows +9.8% Legacy EV - the highest on the card. Combined with positive WT6 EV (+3.7%), both systems agree on value.

The Profit model (Profit=13) shows strong support. WT5=9 and Plain=6 add consensus. When Profit model exceeds 10 AND both WT6 and Legacy EVs are positive, historical performance is excellent.

Klein has 11 UFC fights vs Rebecki’s 4. That experience gap (92.5 vs 52.5 experience percentile) matters in decision fights. Both fighters have adequate UFC data - no inflation from single-fight samples.

Radar Chart Analysis

Klein’s systematic advantages across the radar:

Klein’s Edges:

• Experience (92.5 vs 52.5): 11 UFC fights vs 4 - proven durability
• Durability & Cardio (80.0 vs 60.0): Better conditioning for 3 rounds
• Physical Edge (75.0 vs 62.5): Size and reach advantage
• Striking Defense (67.5): Solid fundamentals

Rebecki’s Advantages:

• Striking Offense (75.0 vs 67.5): More aggressive output
• Grappling Offense (72.5 vs 65.0): Better wrestling threat
• Finishing Threat: Both around 60-65 percentile

The Fight

Klein is a decision fighter - 7 of his 11 UFC fights went to judges. He knows how to accumulate rounds with volume striking and defensive fundamentals. Rebecki is more aggressive but less experienced in deep water.

Klein’s 80.0 durability percentile means he won’t fade in Round 3. Rebecki’s 60.0 cardio creates a gap. In a 3-round fight trending toward decision, Klein’s conditioning and experience accumulate.

Rebecki needs to finish. Klein just needs to survive and accumulate. The betting line reflects this - Klein is favored at -146.

The Bet

Klein (-146) as parlay leg #2.

The +9.8% Legacy EV is exceptional. Profit model (Profit=13) shows strong historical betting value. Positive WT6 EV (+3.7%) confirms modern ML agreement.

Both fighters have adequate UFC data (11 fights vs 4 fights). No inflation from debut samples. The experience gap creates a clear decision path for Klein.

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RECOMMENDED: Nasrat Haqparast vs Quillan Salkilld

Preliminary Card • Lightweight

Veteran vs Two-Fight Prospect

Haqparast has 15 UFC fights. Salkilld has 2.

That experience gap creates +5.9% EV (WT6) and +7.6% Legacy EV. Both models agree. Profit model shows exceptional confidence at 13. When legacy EV exceeds WT6 EV, it signals the market is undervaluing veteran experience.

Salkilld’s radar metrics look impressive - 97.5 striking offense, 92.5 striking defense. But those numbers come from 2 UFC fights. Small sample size creates statistical noise. Haqparast’s 15 fights against Kutateladze, Bobby Green, and Rafael Fiziev provide real data.

Radar Chart Analysis

The radar comparison shows interesting contrast:

Haqparast’s Advantages:

• Experience (95.0 vs 20.0): Massive 75-point gap - 15 UFC fights vs 2
• Grappling Defense (77.5 vs 67.5): Better takedown defense
• Durability & Cardio (72.5 vs 62.5): Proven 3-round fighter

Salkilld’s Surprising Edges:

• Striking Offense (97.5 vs 70.0): Exceptional offensive metrics
• Striking Defense (92.5 vs 62.5): Elite defensive stats
• Finishing Threat (77.5 vs 62.5): More dangerous finisher
• Physical Edge (80.0 vs 60.0): Size advantages

The Experience vs Youth Dynamic

This fight represents classic veteran vs prospect matchup. Salkilld’s radar metrics (97.5 striking offense, 92.5 striking defense) are impressive but based on only 2 UFC fights - small sample size creates statistical noise.

Haqparast’s 15 UFC fights include battles with: Guram Kutateladze, Bobby Green, Rafael Fiziev, and more. He’s been in deep water repeatedly and knows how to survive and adjust. His 95.0 experience percentile means he’s seen every situation.

Salkilld’s 2 UFC fights (1-1 record) include a win over Youssef Zalal and a loss to Trey Ogden. Solid opposition but not the caliber Haqparast has faced. This step up in competition is massive.

The Technical Breakdown

Haqparast’s Path: Use veteran savvy to neutralize Salkilld’s physical advantages. Mix up striking rhythms, attack legs to slow movement, and drag Salkilld into later rounds where experience matters. Haqparast’s 77.5 grappling defense should keep fight standing where he wants it.

Salkilld’s Path: Use physical advantages (80.0 physical edge) and early aggression to overwhelm Haqparast. Salkilld needs to finish early before Haqparast’s experience and cardio take over. His 77.5 finishing threat is real but needs to land clean early.

Betting Recommendation

BET Nasrat Haqparast (-120)

• Strongest model consensus on preliminary card
• Dual positive EV: +5.9% (WT6) and +7.6% (Legacy)
• Profit model (Profit=13) shows strong historical betting value
• Massive experience advantage (15 UFC fights vs 2) creates clear edge
• Veteran vs prospect matchup with proven fighter

Risk Factors:

• Salkilld’s elite radar metrics (97.5 striking offense, 92.5 defense) could be legitimate
• Physical advantages (80.0 percentile) create danger
• Haqparast is 1-3 in last 4 fights - form concerns
• Young hungry prospect vs fading veteran is always dangerous

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Other Fights Analysis

Fight 1: Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane

Heavyweight • Main Card

Why AVOID:

• Strong model consensus: WT6 (70.4%), Legacy models (WT5=12, Profit=20, Plain=4)
• BUT WT6 EV severely negative (-14.4%) and Legacy EV negative (-9.0%)
• At -460 odds, no betting value despite Aspinall being likely winner
• Both models agree on winner but odds are atrocious

Radar Insights:

• Aspinall dominates: Striking Offense (99.3), Striking Defense (92.7), Grappling Defense (99.3), Finishing Threat (98.3)
• Aspinall is elite across all categories except Durability (40.0) - limited deep water experience
• Gane has advantages in Experience (100.0 vs 97.3) and Durability (92.7 vs 40.0)
• This is elite vs elite but -460 offers zero value

Recommendation: AVOID. Aspinall likely wins but -460 is terrible value. Enjoy the fight, don’t bet it.

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Fight 2: Virna Jandiroba vs Mackenzie Dern

Women’s Strawweight • Main Card

Why AVOID:

• Essentially a coin flip: Dern 50.7% vs Jandiroba 49.3%
• WT6 EV severely negative (-21.3%)
• Legacy models favor Jandiroba (WT5=10, Plain=18) but Dern is betting favorite
• Market appears confused, neither side offers value

Radar Insights:

• Jandiroba advantages: Striking Offense (97.5 vs 47.5), Striking Defense (80.0 vs 52.5), Grappling Offense (95.0 vs 82.5)
• Dern advantages: Finishing Threat (95.0 vs 75.0), Grappling Defense (77.5 vs 60.0)
• Both elite grapplers (Dern BJJ world champion, Jandiroba judo black belt)
• Extremely close matchup, avoid both sides

Recommendation: AVOID. True pick’em with terrible value on Dern side. Watch and enjoy the grappling battle.

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Fight 3: Umar Nurmagomedov vs Mario Bautista

Bantamweight • Main Card

Why AVOID:

• Strongest legacy model consensus on entire card: WT5=30, Profit=20, Plain=16
• BUT at -590 odds, both WT6 EV (-13.9%) and Legacy EV (-6.3%) are negative
• Nurmagomedov overwhelmingly likely to win but odds make it unplayable
• This is showcase fight for Nurmagomedov’s title shot push

Radar Insights:

• Nurmagomedov dominates every single category
• Highest overall percentiles: Grappling Offense (97.5), Experience (97.5), Finishing Threat (92.5)
• Bautista competitive but outclassed across the board
• This is elite prospect vs solid veteran - mismatch

Recommendation: AVOID. Nurmagomedov crushes him but -590 offers zero value. Potential parlay piece if desperate but not recommended.

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Fight 4: Alexander Volkov vs Jailton Almeida

Heavyweight • Main Card

Why AVOID:

• Almeida favored (56.8%) but negative WT6 EV (-18.3%)
• Legacy EV barely positive (-0.1) - essentially break-even
• Volkov has massive experience advantage (22 UFC fights vs 8)
• Market pricing efficient, no edge on either side

Radar Insights:

• Extremely close matchup: average percentiles 76.2 (Volkov) vs 76.0 (Almeida)
• Volkov advantages: Physical Edge (87.5 vs 75.0), Experience (100.0 vs 75.0)
• Almeida advantages: Grappling Offense (92.5 vs 67.5), Finishing Threat (90.0 vs 75.0)
• True pick’em disguised as favorite/underdog

Recommendation: AVOID. Too close to call, no edge, negative WT6 EV. Watch the technical battle.

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Fight 11: Hamdy Abdelwahab vs Chris Barnett

Heavyweight • Preliminary Card

Why AVOID:

• Strong model consensus: WT6 (69.2%), Legacy (WT5=24, Profit=19, Plain=8)
• BUT at -390 odds, both EVs negative (WT6: -13.1%, Legacy: -0.4%)
• Abdelwahab likely wins but odds offer no value
• Barnett is entertaining but outmatched

Radar Insights:

• Abdelwahab dominates across most categories
• Barnett’s only advantages: Experience (77.5 vs 50.0), Finishing Threat (50.0 vs 47.5)
• Abdelwahab elite in Striking Offense (90.0), Grappling Offense (85.0)
• Barnett’s radar profile shows clear decline (34.0 average percentile)

Recommendation: AVOID. Abdelwahab wins but -390 is terrible value. Barnett likely getting cut after this fight.

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Fight 12: Azat Maksum vs Mitch Raposo

Flyweight • Preliminary Card

Why AVOID:

• Extremely strong legacy consensus: WT5=25, Profit=20, Plain=16
• BUT at -340 odds, WT6 EV negative (-12.3%)
• Legacy EV barely positive (+1.9) but not enough to justify risk
• Maksum likely wins but overpriced

Radar Insights:

• Close matchup: Maksum 54.2 avg vs Raposo 58.9 avg percentile
• Raposo actually has better radar profile on limited data (2 UFC fights)
• Maksum advantages: Experience (65.0 vs 30.0), Grappling Offense (65.0 vs 55.0)
• Legacy models heavily favor Maksum despite radar showing Raposo competitive

Recommendation: AVOID. Legacy models love Maksum but -340 offers no value. Raposo’s limited data creates uncertainty.

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Fight 13: Jaqueline Amorim vs Mizuki

Women’s Strawweight • Preliminary Card

Why AVOID:

• Strongest legacy consensus on entire card: WT5=28, Profit=20, Plain=24
• BUT at -480 odds, both EVs severely negative (WT6: -13.5%, Legacy: -3.6%)
• Amorim overwhelmingly likely to win but odds make it unplayable
• All systems agree on winner but value is non-existent

Radar Insights:

• Amorim dominates: Grappling Offense (95.0), Grappling Defense (77.5), Striking Offense (75.0)
• Amorim is elite grappler (BJJ world champion background)
• Mizuki competitive in Striking Defense (77.5) and Durability (70.0)
• Clear skill gap but -480 is absurd

Recommendation: AVOID. Amorim crushes but -480 offers zero value. Watch the grappling showcase, don’t bet it.

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Key Insights & Model Performance

Exceptional Value This Card

Unlike previous events where we saw modest EV opportunities, UFC October 25 features Nathaniel Wood at +19.0% EV - the highest single-fight value we’ve identified in recent analysis. This represents a rare market mispricing where the betting public appears to be overweighting Delgado’s recent knockout and undervaluing Wood’s experience and technical improvements.

When WT6 Disagrees with Legacy Models

The Nathaniel Wood fight exemplifies interesting model disagreement:

• WT6: 53.2% win probability, +19.0% EV (BET)
• Legacy: WT5=9, Plain=13 favor Delgado; Profit=4 weakly favors Wood
• Legacy EV not provided in data (appears to be minimal or negative)

Historically, when WT6 shows massive EV (+19.0%) but legacy models disagree, it indicates either:

1. Market mispricing - WT6 has identified value that traditional models miss
2. WT6 overconfidence - Modern ML model missing something legacy models capture
3. Small sample issues - Both fighters have limited UFC data creating noise

The key: This is a value play with risk. The exceptional EV justifies a bet, but reduced unit sizing (0.5-1 unit vs full 1-2 units) accounts for model disagreement.

The Profit Model (O) Signal

The Profit model showing strong numbers (>10) continues to be reliable:

• Rakic (Profit=11) - recommended ✅
• Haqparast (Profit=13) - recommended ✅
• Klein (Profit=13) - marginal (weak WT6 confidence)
• Al-Selwady (Profit=10) - positive EV but no radar data for full analysis

When Profit model (O) ≥ 10 AND WT6 EV is positive, historical performance remains strong. Both strong recommendations meet this criteria.

Overpriced Favorites Epidemic

This card features numerous overpriced favorites with high win probabilities but terrible odds:

• Aspinall (-460): 70.4% win probability, -14.4% EV
• Nurmagomedov (-590): 73.7% win probability, -13.9% EV
• Abdelwahab (-390): 69.2% win probability, -13.1% EV
• Maksum (-340): 68.0% win probability, -12.3% EV
• Amorim (-480): 72.0% win probability, -13.5% EV

The market is correctly identifying likely winners but pricing them inefficiently. Public bettors appear to be hammering favorites, creating value on selective underdogs like Wood, Rakic, and Haqparast.

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• Chris@WolfTickets.AI